AFL Aussie Rules
2007-08-03 - Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
A reminder that the sheet and the betting style is predominantly an underdogs picker - as Aussie Rules betting odds are filled with short priced favourites that don't win as often as required to turn that into a good profit.
But in the last two rounds the favourites have all been winning by big margins as they seek to boost their "percentage" and get a higher place on the ladder - so the underdog margin plays have been failing with 7 losses in the last 8 picks !!
However - over the course of the season the sheet is 29-18 at home and 19-16 away on these plays for a 48-34 record and a nice 30% yield.
It seems that the bookmakers have responded to the last two weeks by giving some much bigger handicaps here ...
so I'll follow the sheet for another week.
Western Bulldogs (9-8) v St Kilda (9-8)
Friday nights game is at Telstra Dome as Western Bulldogs face ST Kilda.These two sides are next to each other on the ladder with 9-8 records and sitting just outside the all important top 8 playoff spots.
So it's no surprise to see that the sheet rates them as very similar sides - however punters memories usually only go back 2-3 weeks and in that regard the Saints have been very good winning all three games.
The Western Bulldogs have been hit by injuries and also facing the two best sides in the competition in the last two weeks - when they got thumped by West Coast 71-158 and by Geelong 63-138.
So perhaps it is not a surprise to see that the bookmakers give St Kilda a 20 point start.
THE VERDICT
I'm on the Bulldogs again with a +21 point start - following the sheet as usual - but it's a tough bet to make given that they've lost the last two games by 75 and 87 points.
But the Saints often seem to coast home in the final quarter (as they did last week in only beating Carlton 111-101) so I'll give this play a shot.
The Pick :
Western Bulldogs +20.5 points
