World Cup
2018-07-07 - Russia vs Croatia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: World Cup 2018 Quarter Final
Saturday 7th July 2018 - Kick Off British Time 7pm
This game is live on TV
Russia
The home fans won't care about some of the raised eyebrows that will come with Russia's surprising run to the Quarter Final of the World Cup. A penalty shoot out win over Spain last Sunday means the adventure continues for a team many thought may not make it out of the Group Stage, but it is hard not to be a little concerned with the huge amount of running they have been able to put in.
The conditions were very tough for that on Sunday but Russia didn't show a lot of sign of worrying about it and previous doping allegations made against the athletes of this country can't be just swept under the carpet. Am I convinced this all just adrenaline from hosting a World Cup? Far from it, but Russia have also rode their luck a little bit and overachieved when you think of it from that point of view too.
Russia hammered Saudi Arabia and Egypt in their first two games in the World Cup to Qualify for the Second Round and followed that up with a 0-3 defeat to Uruguay who look one of the better teams in the tournament. They basically had their one opportunity against Spain and quickly settled in to frustrate one of the tournament favourites before winning that one on penalties, but Russia can't be expected to continue to take almost every chance that has presented itself to them.
There are six days between the Second Round and Quarter Final so I don't anticipate too many changes. One of the surprises in the Second Round selection was the decision to leave Denis Cheryshev on the bench, although the player has since been hit by doping allegations after an interview with his father was published this past weekend.
Croatia
Every team who has won a major international tournament in recent years has had a moment where they have not performed at their very best but forced their way through the draw. Last Sunday may have been Croatia's moment as they finally won a Knock Out tie for the first time since the 1998 World Cup Quarter Final and they are now in a position to match the achievements of a team who have entered Croatian folklore.
For a moment it seemed the gods were conspiring against Croatia after seeing their side miss a penalty deep into extra time and being forced into a penalty shoot out against Denmark. Somehow they still held their nerve to progress to the Quarter Final and the draw has opened up for one of the best teams in the tournament to even surpass the 1998 squad, although facing the hosts is not going to be an easy game for them.
Croatia had been one of the more impressive teams to make it into the Second Round of the World Cup having beaten Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland in their Group. Some have claimed resting the players in the final game against Iceland destroyed their rhythm, but personally I thought Croatia played well in the first half against Denmark but could not deal with the tactical changes made by their opponents in the second half.
Mateo Kovacic came on as a substitute in the last game, but damage to his shoulder could rule him out of the Quarter Final. The starting line up should not feature too many changes in the final Quarter Final to be played on Saturday.
Head to Head
This is the fourth time Russia and Croatia have met and it is Croatia who have yet to taste defeat.
They played out goalless draws twice in the Euro 2008 Qualifiers but the most recent meeting came in Rostov in 2015 in an international friendly.
On that occasion Croatia came from behind to beat Russia 1-3.
Prediction
It is always a good thing to see the hosts of a World Cup do well as it energises the country the event is being played with and also the tournament seems to be that much more enjoyable.
Of course you can't shy away from the recent history of Russian sports when you see the kind of energy this team is playing with, even if the quality is not quite there.
The running distances are eye catching from the hosts and I will admit I am not completely comfortable seeing it because I simply don't trust it is the adrenaline of representing your country at home in this case. They are going to need that energy again if they are going to make the Semi Final of the World Cup against another team who will look to keep possession through a powerful midfield.
Croatia didn't play at their best in the penalty shoot out win over Denmark, but that performance can only be surpassed in this Quarter Final. They could have blown the Danes away in the first half, but struggled in the second half and the majority of extra time, but there is a clear quality in this Croatia team that suggests they can relax a little bit with a first Knock Out win since the 1998 World Cup Quarter Final behind them.
They also have a different style compared with Spain who were very boring in their play and one paced for much of the Second Round clash with Russia. This time the old defenders Russia have been relying on will be faced with players who have pace and who will look to run at them and that can be a real difference maker in this Quarter Final.
I am anticipating the Croatian team will have the majority of the chances to win this match, but they will have to take them. For all my concerns about Russia's running ability without showing too much fatigue, I also think this is a team who will need the full six days to try and reenergise the batteries.
Russia have also been very efficient in front of goal with any big chance taken and that is a concern for a Croatia defence that has looked a little vulnerable at times. They have to expect to be dealing with a lot more crosses into the box and Croatia have to show better command of those situations.
Like any Quarter Final, the first goal is going to be absolutely key here. If Croatia get it I think they can dictate the tempo and they have a better counter attacking threat than Spain which can expose the older legs Russia have at the back.
A Russian lead will mean they will sit back and look to defend in great numbers as they did with success against Spain, but I do think the hosts will need to ride their luck in this one.
It wouldn't be a big surprise to me to see goals in this Quarter Final, but I am giving the edge to Croatia who I expect to be multiple times better than they were against Denmark last Sunday. The quality is really all with Croatia and I think they silence the hosts on Saturday with a win and a place in the World Cup Semi Final for the first time in twenty years.
The Pick :
Russia 1-3 Croatia
