English FA CUP
2019-01-05 - Derby County vs Southampton
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English FA Cup Third Round
Saturday 5th January 2019 - Kick Off 3pm
Derby County
Matters in the Championship remain the priority for Derby County who are in a good position to have a real go at automatic promotion to the Premier League at the end of this season. However Frank Lampard has shown he is willing to play strong teams in the Cup judging by those he picked in the League Cup and The Rams are facing yet another Premier League albeit in the FA Cup this time.
A difficult festive period is behind Derby County and they have remained in touch with the likes of Leeds United and Norwich City who are leading the Championship. They have not made it past the Fourth Round of the FA Cup since the 2014/15 season, but Derby County have had some tough draws in the last couple of years with defeats to Leicester City and Manchester United (twice) in the competition.
Derby County have only won 1 of their last 5 games, but the opposite side of the coin is the side have lost 1 of their last 7 games going into this weekend. They are unbeaten in 4 games at Pride Park, but The Rams have had to settle for draws in each of the last 3 games here including a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough on New Year's Day.
Frank Lampard has shown he is willing to play a strong team in the Cup competitions and I don't think that will change here. However he may choose to freshen things up a little bit after the busy festive period that the team has just been through.
Southampton
The FA Cup has a big reputation around the world, but managers know winning this competition and failing in the League is not good enough for owners and ultimately for their own job. Ralph Hasenhuttl won't want his team to lose more confidence by losing to a team from a lower League, but Southampton's focus is on getting out of the relegation zone in the Premier League and I expect the team selection to underline that point.
The side did get to the FA Cup Semi Final last season when losing to eventual winners Chelsea, but Southampton almost lost their place in the Premier League at the same time and that was the concern. That could influence Hasenhuttl to play an even weaker team and Southampton had not managed to get past the Fourth Round of the FA Cup in three previous seasons before the Semi Final in April 2018.
Southampton have not won any of their last 3 games coming into this fixture, but they did earn a battling point in the goalless draw at Chelsea on Wednesday evening. The Saints had lost 4 of 5 away games in all competitions before beating Huddersfield Town 1-3 and then drawing at Stamford Bridge.
I would expect wholesale changes to the Southampton starting eleven which has been stretched by injury too. The hectic festive period may mean key players need a rest ahead of the return to Premier League action in seven days time.
Head to Head
Derby County and Southampton have not met since the 2011/12 season when both played in the Championship.
Derby County have not won any of their last 5 home games against Southampton, although 3 of those have ended in draws.
Prediction
Those looking for a Premier League upset this weekend will have focused on a couple of Championship sides hosting clubs inside the bottom three of the top flight.
The first of those comes from Pride Park where a promotion chasing Derby County want to take the scalp of another Premier League club after beating Manchester United in the League Cup earlier this season. Frank Lampard clearly sees the Cup as a chance to build some momentum for his club considering the teams he has picked in the League Cup, although you don't know what a manager is feeling at the end of a busy festive period.
The expectation is that Lampard won't suddenly change his mind as to how important Cup games could be for his club, but Ralph Hasenhuttl may see this as a chance to rest key players for Southampton.
In his first Cup game as manager in England it is hard to second guess the manager, but I have to feel that Southampton's efforts in the goalless draw at Chelsea will mean wholesale changes for this tie on Saturday. The squad depth at Southampton is not as great as they would like so this looks an opportunity for Derby County to stun the top flight club.
Last season I did think Fulham could do the same as they were in good form in the Championship and Southampton had been struggling in the Premier League. However that Third Round tie at Craven Cottage ended in favour of Southampton and that should temper enthusiasm to back Derby County at a big price to earn the victory in the win-draw-win market.
I still do think Southampton are vulnerable to the upset here and I will back Derby County on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in the event of a draw.
The Pick :
Derby County 2-1 Southampton
