New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Betting pick | 2019-01-20

NFL Football

2019-01-20 - New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
United States: NFL Play Offs AFC Championship Game
Sunday 20th January 2019 - Tip Off 6:40pm
British Time: 11:40pm

Preview

There is another rematch in the Championship Round of the Play Offs, but this time the Kansas City Chiefs will get to host the New England Patriots having lost in Foxboro in the regular season. This is the second of the Championship Games to be played on Sunday and the layers are finding it very difficult to split the teams with home field being given the three points that is the general rule for those layers creating the spreads.

It was the New England Patriots who won the regular season game in another shoot out, but the second half performance from the Kansas City Chiefs will be a big encouragement to them. Patrick Mahomes grew in that game and has proven to be a level headed Quarter Back that can play at a very high level no matter the intense nature of the NFL.

The Chiefs comfortably handled the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round at home and having the chance to host this one at Arrowhead is a huge advantage for them. They have won eight of their nine games played at home in the 2018 season and Kansas City will be very confident against a New England Patriots team that were only 3-5 on the road.

There were a lot of people writing off the Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick to beat them last week in the Divisional Round. It was never a contest though and the Patriots dismissed the Chargers, but for once they are not hosting the AFC Championship Game and that does feel like a difference maker.

In recent years the Patriots have been very vulnerable when losing home advantage in the Play Offs and I really do think that could be the case again. I don't want to write off Bill Belichick and his brilliant mind especially as he has seen Patrick Mahomes once this season and likely compiled a great game plan to limit the young Quarter Back, but I love the way Mahomes has handled all situations.

There is no doubt that there has been an improvement in the levels the New England Defensive unit have been operating at, but those performances have been with home comforts. It has been a very different story on the road and I do think the Chiefs can find a very good balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will make it very difficult to stop them.

Damien Williams and Spencer Ware are not as good as Kareem Hunt, but both are solid enough Running Backs who should be able to have success in this one. Andy Reid is someone who will look to establish the run in different ways so Tyreek Hill running a jet sweep will also have an impact on this game, while Mahomes is an athletic Quarter Back too, but I would expect Williams and Ware to have success against the Patriots Defensive Line despite the recent strength shown up front.

Patrick Mahomes has been put under pressure at times by the opposing pass rush and that may be the case again in this one, but third and long doesn't faze him. There have been too many occasions when those have been converted into First Downs to think he is 'lucky' so I do think Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have success moving the chains as they did when these teams met in the regular season.

Beating Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Play Offs is a huge test for any team in the NFL and you know these two men are unlikely to put New England in a spot where they beat themselves. You just know Brady is itching to keep proving the doubters wrong after hearing his thoughts following the dominant win over the Chargers and the Patriots did score 43 points against the Chiefs at home.

With Josh Gordon gone, New England have been happy to lean on their Running Backs either as Receivers coming out of the backfield or pounding the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Sony Michel has been a huge success for the Patriots and have a big game in the Divisional Round, but both James White and Rex Burkhead get their touches too and the Patriots will feel they can establish the run.

This is huge for New England who know that the one thing Kansas City do very well is rushing the passer and putting them under intense pressure. It has proven that the best way to beat Brady in the Play Offs is with a strong pass rush which leads to the future Hall of Famer just getting a little edgy inside the pocket and perhaps makes him feel some phantom pressure that lead to mistakes.

That pressure for the Chiefs has been a key reason the Secondary have improved as the weeks have gone on in the NFL. While Brady will have some success, I do think the Chiefs have the edge with the pass rush that can at least stall some drives and give Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

As you can tell I do like Kansas City, although some of the enthusiasm is taken away when you think of the Coaching battle. I like Andy Reid, but he has Coached some poor Play Off games which would concern me against someone like Bill Belichick.

However Reid seems to hold all the Aces in this one and my favourite to win the Super Bowl is Kansas City so I do believe they win this one. Backing the home team to cover against the Patriots in the Play Offs may seem dangerous, but New England are 1-4 in their last five road Play Off games and they are also 1-4 against the spread in that time.