NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - DALLAS COWBOYS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

NFL Football

2007-12-22 - Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Saturday, December 22, 8:15 p.m. ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Carolina Panthers

Carolina come into this game with a 6-8 record and sit in 3rd spot in the NFC South. Their record leaves them as the last team fighting for a wild card spot in the NFL with a losing record due to the various tie break procedures, but a defeat here would end any lingering hopes of making the playoffs.

Things really went wrong for Carolina when Jake Delhomme, their QB, was placed on injured reserve early in the season and they have not been the same team since. To make the playoffs, Carolina need to win their remaining 2 games while hoping Minnesota lose both theirs and New Orleans and Washington lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games.

The Panthers have really struggled at home this season where they are 2-5 going into this match. However last week they stunned the Seattle Seahawks with a 13-10 victory over them here. The Panthers actually snapped their 0-5 start to the season at home by winning their last 2 games there, but these 2 wins are their only ones in 8 games since their bye week.

When Carolina lose they tend to get blown out quite easily. Only 1 of their defeats this season has come by 7 points or less (actually being a 7 point defeat) and all the rest of the defeats have been by at least 13 points. In the last 8 matches the Panthers have only scored more than 17 points on 1 occasion, and actually manage to score less than 10 points in 4 of those games.

Julius Peppers was placed on the doubtful list for this match as he missed practice again on Friday. His loss will be something the Panthers are going to struggle to replace. Matt Moore has also been given the starting place at QB for the second week running for the team. He has added motivation as he was cut by Dallas this Summer.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas had a very surprising home defeat to Philadelphia last week at home which dropped their record to 12-2 and leaves them in a straight fight with Green Bay for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They currently hold the number 1 seed in the NFC courtesy of beating the Packers but need to win their last 2 games to confirm it. If Dallas do drop another game, their fate will be out of their hands and they would need to hope for Green Bay to lose one of their last 2 matches.

Dallas are a perfect 6-0 on the road this season, but had two 1 point wins in Buffalo and in Detroit. Their other 4 wins have been by 11, 17, 21, and 24 points. The Cowboys' defeat last week snapped their 7 game winning run and their points total was the lowest by far on the season so far.

Dallas have had problems in December and January for a few years now and need to right the ship as soon as possible. The Cowboys began their 7 match winning run with 24 points against Minnesota, and they did not put up anything less than 28 points in their next 6 matches.

Roy Williams will miss this game by suspension for another horse-collar tackle last week against Philadelphia. Tony Romo hurt his thumb last week but he has been taking reps in practice and I am pretty sure he will start this weekend.

HEAD TO HEAD & STATS

Dallas and Carolina have met 5 times since 2001 and Dallas hold a 4-1 record, and that is 4-0 in regular season matches. Dallas have also won the last 2 meetings in Carolina, including a 35-14 blowout last season.

Carolina are 6-8 against the spread and that is 2-5 at home. They have also gone 4-5 as the underdog in matches against the spread. Dallas are a good 9-5 against the spread, 4-2 on the road. They have been favourites on 12 occasions this season and have won 8 of those matches.

An interesting statistic is Carolina are actually 3-12 over their last 15 games played on grass against the spread. Dallas are 10-3-1 over their last 14 games on grass ATS.

Dallas may have lost their last 2 matches against the spread but they had won 5 of 6 before that. Carolina have won 2 of their last 3 matches ATS, but this snapped a 5 match losing run.

The underdog has gone 6-2-1 in their head to head matches against the spread, but Dallas have won on the spread on 3 of the last 4 occasions and 5 of the last 7.

Thankfully the game is played on Saturday night as Sunday is expecting wind and rain in Carolina. The conditions are not set to effect the passing game, but keep an eye on the weather in case it comes early.

PREDICTION

Dallas need a win more than anything- especially when considering they have to visit their divisional rivals Washington next week, a rival that might be fighting for their playoff lives at that point.

Carolina are playing with a 4th choice QB who has a point to prove to a former club, but the team is not putting up enough points to win matches. Their QBs have only thrown 8 TD passes in their last 11 matches, the same number that Delhomme threw in 3 contests before his injury.

The spread is big, but I cannot see Carolina keeping pace with Dallas.

The Pick :