NFL Football

2025-01-26 - Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
United States : NFL Playoff AFC Championship Game
Sunday 26th January 2025 - Scheduled 6:30pm
11:30pm (British Time)

Preview

In recent years, the Buffalo Bills (15-4) have gotten the better of the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in the regular season, but beating them when it really matters has been beyond their reach.

In 2024, the Bills have secured another regular season win over Kansas City, but the AFC Championship Game sees the two come together in the Playoff once again. Three of the last four Buffalo Playoff runs have been ended by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium after barely holding off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs did not have it much easier against the Houston Texans, but they have an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of the AFC Championship Game and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills had a much tougher Divisional Round win.

On one hand they will feel battle hardened, but the other is the physical toll a game against the powerful Ravens will have had on the players and the Buffalo Bills still have so much to prove as they look to make the Super Bowl for the first time since January 1994 when they were beaten for the fourth time in a row as the AFC representative.

Controversial decisions overshadowed Kansas City's win over Houston last week with some bogus flags being thrown to keep the Offensive unit on the field, but they will need more from Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs are going to win a third Super Bowl in a row. The zebras are hopefully not going to be over-involved in this AFC Championship Game after being criticised for some of the flags thrown last week, with conspiracy theorists offering their belief that the NFL would like to see the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if it means Taylor Swift will be attending.

Regardless of some of the poor calls, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are only concentrating on imposing themselves on this Championship Game. No one can take away from the talent and success Mahomes has had, especially as the Kansas City Chiefs have offered little support on the ground.

Andy Reid is very happy moving away from seeing run plays called and that has had to be the position for the Kansas City Chiefs with the Offensive Line struggling. They are not expected to have a lot more joy rushing the ball against this Buffalo Defensive Line and that will mean all of the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes to make plays with his arm and legs.

He is capable of doing that, but becoming one-dimensional may give the Buffalo Bills to make some big plays.

Patrick Mahomes does not have the consistent Receiving option that he would like, but Travis Kelce is playing in Playoff mode and the Quarter Back should be able to make some plays down the field. However, it has not been easy to throw against this Buffalo Secondary and the Bills should believe they can contain the home team for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.

For everything he has achieved in the NFL, Josh Allen knows that he will be judged by successes in the Playoff and he is going to be the key player for Buffalo. Last week Allen got the better of Lamar Jackson by playing a clean game and more of that will be needed against this Kansas City Defensive unit that deserves a lot of credit for the team building the record that they have.

It may be Josh Allen's legs that make the first impact on this game with the Kansas City Defensive Line just having one or two issues stopping the run in recent games. With James Cook behind him, Buffalo can use the RPO to just move into third and manageable positions on the field, which is key for a team that does not have a stand out Receiver, but have a number of players ready to make the big catch when needed.

Playing in front of the chains negates what has been a disruptive Kansas City pass rush with Josh Allen not having to hold onto the ball for too long and the Buffalo Bills may find a balance in their play-calling that gives them the edge.

In recent years we have seen Buffalo falter in the big moments and the Kansas City Chiefs are two time defending Super Bowl Champions so it is not easy to back against the Chiefs here.

However, the Buffalo Bills may have come through their most difficult challenge after winning the turnover battle against the powerful Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen may finally take this franchise back into the Super Bowl.

Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have found a way to win games when not being at their best all season, but they will need their best to beat Buffalo. The struggles to run the ball may just mean Buffalo can prepare a little more for what is to come from the home team and the Secondary have played well enough to stall drives.

With Josh Allen's dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, the Buffalo Bills may just come through as the narrow underdog in the AFC Championship Game.