English Premier
2025-02-22 - Aston Villa vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 22nd February 2025 - Kick Off 5:30pm
This game is live on TV
Aston Villa
A humdinger of a match ended with the points shared and that felt like a fair reflection after Aston Villa and Liverpool battled for ninety minutes. Late chances were missed by Aston Villa, much to Unai Emery's frustrations on the sidelines, and the result does mean that the team have not really taken advantage of their run of home games as they would have hoped.
They are 9th in the Premier League table having played a game more than the majority of the Division and Aston Villa need to string some big results together to remain in touch with those teams chasing what may be five places open to the Champions League. The Villans have a 6-7-1 record at home in the top flight and it is those draws that have just held them back of late.
Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 8 games in all competitions, but they are still involved in the Champions League and FA Cup and silverware may be prioritised as the season develops. They have drawn 4 of their last 5 Premier League games, which has seen Aston Villa slip down the standings, and the team have won 1 of their last 5 Premier League games at Villa Park. All of the other fixtures played in that run have ended in draws, including the last 3 in a row.
Axel Disasi is ineligible to play against his parent club, but the likes of Ezri Konsa and Leon Bailey are hoping to bolster options. Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley could return next week, while Boubacar Kamara and Pau Torres are targeting a return around the Champions League Last 16 tie.
Chelsea
Enzo Maresca never believed his Chelsea team were in a Premier League title race, but ever since he stated that publicly, his team have completely come off the boil. The performance in the 3-0 hammering at Brighton would have really hurt all associated with Chelsea Football Club and Maresca may be under some pressure to reverse the slide down the Premier League standings.
The Blues are 6th in the Premier League table and only a point behind Manchester City in the top four, but the drop in form is highlighted by the 18 point gap between Chelsea and leaders Liverpool. They will travel to the Midlands with a 6-3-4 record away from home where Chelsea have scored 25 goals and conceded 19.
Chelsea have won 3 of their last 11 games in all competitions since Enzo Maresca ruled his young squad out of the title race, while they have been beaten in 3 of their last 4 fixtures. All of those defeats have been away from Stamford Bridge and Chelsea have won none of their last 6 on their travels with 4 losses in 5 piling up.
Malo Gusto is expected to be passed fit, but Chelsea are missing a host of players including both starting strikers. Nicolas Jackson and Marc Guiu are not expected to return before the March international break.
Head to Head
Chelsea beat Aston Villa 3-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season and are unbeaten in 4 against this opponent in all competitions.
Last season Chelsea played twice at Villa Park and won a FA Cup tie here. Later on they fought back from 2-0 down to secure a 2-2 draw in the Premier League.
Those results mean Chelsea are unbeaten in 4 visits to Villa Park and they had won 3 in a row before the 2-2 draw in April 2024.
Prediction
Neither one of these teams can claim to be in great form right now as they negotiate a busy month, but Aston Villa have at least been avoiding defeats.
That is far from the case for Chelsea who have looked poor in recent away losses at Manchester City and Brighton (twice) and you do have to wonder if the squad have just lost some faith in the manager. Enzo Maresca's comments about his team not being in a Premier League title race in December have been followed by a poor run of form and Chelsea are now fighting and scrapping to challenge for a place in the Champions League next season.
Injuries to both strikers have just left Chelsea a little short up front and they were relatively toothless in the defeat at the Amex Stadium last time out.
However, Chelsea played that game on a Friday and they have had a lot of time to rest and recover, while trying to find solutions.
At the same time Aston Villa have played two games and been held to draws against Ipswich Town and Liverpool. A huge amount of effort was put into the match with the League leaders on Wednesday evening and the injuries in the squad does mean the players could be potentially stretched.
Unai Emery does have options to rotate in and out of the team- Jacob Ramsey and Donyell Malen could be given the starts having come off the bench on Wednesday. Matty Cash is another that could bring in some energy, but Unai Emery's team have not always been at their best when being asked to play every three days and that raises some doubt.
It is still a surprise to see Aston Villa down as the home underdog- they have not lost a League game here since August, while Chelsea's recent form is hardly going to have people rushing to back them to win here.
The Blues do have a decent record at Villa Park in recent years, but so did Tottenham Hotspur before losing in the FA Cup here earlier this month.
You would worry for Aston Villa if they are level going into the final fifteen minutes, but the confidence issues at Chelsea may mean they are not in a position to take advantage. Both teams have big problems at the back, but the home team may deserve an edge with the consistency the attacking players can provide and the 'boring' pick here is taking the start on the Asian Handicap with Aston Villa to at least avoid a defeat.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.68 with SportBet.One
