Rugby League

2025-05-17 - Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Cronulla Sharks v Melbourne Storm
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Saturday 17th May 2025 - KO 1930 AEST

Cronulla Sharks

The Cronulla Sharks have been in impressive form this season, 6-4 record and placed 5th on 12 points at the start of round 11. The Sharks have developed a great attacking unit and a team with a strong defensive structure with Nikora, Brailey and Fonua-Blake leading the way. Key players in the backs like Hynes and Stonestreet have been very solid to start season 2025 too.

The Sharks defence is improving each week as well, conceding just 18 ppg which ranks them third on defence while attack is averaging 24.5ppg with only 4 teams going better in this category. The most recent victory over the Manly Sea Eagles, where they claimed a 30-14 win, after manly came back and tied the scores at 14 showed the maturity the Sharks are developing when other teams may have panicked, Cronullas composure was excellent. The return of Addin Fonua-Blake from a groin injury last week made a big difference when scoring a great first half try.

Cronulla Sharks Team News – Talakai is named to return, Hazleton is out injured and Wilton is a slim chance of making his return from injury too being named in the extended squad.

Melbourne Storm

The Melbourne Storm have also had a strong start to the 2025 season, sitting in third place, 6-3 on the NRL ladder. Key players like Ryan Papenhuyzen who scored 4 tries and kicked 10 goals against the woeful Tigers must be right on the edge of selectin for NSW in Origin and Cameron Munsters form has also been sensational. Melbourne welcomed back man mountain Nelson Asofa-Solomona last weekend, adding pure size and strength to an already very strong team.

The Storm's defence has been exceptional, conceding just 172 points from their nine matches so far which ranks second in the league and a huge 312 points on offence in 9 matches easily the best team in 2025. Their recent victory over the Wests Tigers, where they claimed a 64-0 win, showcased their attacking prowess. Further improvement for the starting line up with Tui Kamikamica coming back from an ankle injury which adds even more muscle to the middle.

Melbourne Storm Team News – no changes expected but Harry Grant is a slim chance of returning from a hamstring injury.

Odds

Bet365 currently has the home team Sharks at $2.35 and the Storm at $1.60. The Sharks are 3.5-point underdogs against the Storm, with odds of $1.91. The Total combined points over/under is set at 45.5 with Bet365

The Betting Verdict

The Storm have had the upper hand H2H as they do against most teams, winning 30 of the 47 games played between the two teams. However, the Sharks broke a six-year drought in Melbourne with a 25-18 victory in Round 10 of the 2024 season. This win showcased the Sharks ability to compete against the Storm and combat the elite teams in the NRL, although Melbourne have traditionally been too strong for Cronulla, this season the Sharks are much tougher opponent. At this venue, Cronulla win 58% of their home matches, while the Storm struggle a touch at Shark Park, 8-9.

Key matchups to watch include the battle between Nicho Hynes and Ryan Papenhuyzen. Although these players are in different positions, both players are crucial to their teams attacking setups, and their performance will make a huge difference to the outcome of the game. Additionally, the forward battle between Briton Nikora and Tui Kamikamica will be a physical contest that will be just one of many heavy weight clashes in the middle.

With Hazleton out for the Sharks, Melbourne have the upper hand in the middle and should be too strong as a result. Dating back to 2019, these teams have met 10 times, Sharks have won 3 of those, by slim margins, 2, 22 and 7 points. Through that same period, Melbourne have won 7, with only 2 of those 12 points or less, meaning 50% of those matches have been 13+ results to Melbourne.

All of those high scoring margins were at home, with the lower margins away from home. As this match is a Sharks home game, 1-12 therefore looks a likely result, and the -3.5 point start is the suggested option here.

For first try scorers, Papenhuyzen is in great form and cannot be overlooked along with Xavier Coates.