Rugby League
2025-05-23 - Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 23rd May 2025 - KO 2000 AEST
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly enter this match with confidence after a dominant 24-6 win over the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville, arguably their most complete performance of the season.
The Sea Eagles backline, led by Tom Trbojevic, was electric, with their speed and support play proving too much for the Cowboys defence. This places the Sea Eagles in 6th, 5-5 on equal points with 5 other teams, Brisbane, Wests, Sydney and Souths.
Manly Sea Eagles Team news – Due to Origin commitments, Manly will be without Queensland captain Daly Cherry-Evans and lock Jake Trbojevic, who is sidelined with concussion. Jake Arthur steps into the halves alongside Luke Brooks, while Jazz Tevaga shifts to lock.
Jake Simpkin starts at hooker, and Lachlan Croker makes his long awaited return from a knee injury via the bench and veteran prop Matt Lodge has also been named for his first NRL appearance since last year’s finals. Haumole Olakau’atu, despite being in the NSW Blues squad, has been released to play and will be a key figure on the edge.
Parramatta Eels
The Eels are also coming off their best performance of the season—a 6-28 dismantling of the Newcastle Knights, the Knights at this stage look to be in a battle for the wooden spoon with Gold Coast. this places the Eels 16th, 3-7.
Dylan Brown was outstanding, scoring a try, setting up another, and running for 146 metres. Brown will need to be at his best as Mitchell Moses and Zac Lomax are away on Origin duty, Brown will shoulder the bulk of the playmaking responsibilities and kicking.
The Eels ability to adapt without their key playmakers will be tested, but their recent form suggests they’re up for the challenge. Their edge defence and ability to control the ruck will be crucial against Manly’s mobile pack and dangerous outside backs.
Parramatta Eels Team news - Dean Hawkins comes into the halves to partner Brown, while Sean Russell shifts to the wing and Jordan Samrani starts in the centres. Kelma Tuilagi returns from suspension in the back row, and Matt Doorey joins the bench.
Odds
Manly lead the betting, $2.75 to $1.45, the line is 6.5 points and combined points 45.5
The Betting Verdict
Manly and Parramatta have shared a fierce rivalry in recent years, with their last few meetings producing tight, physical contests. In 2024, the Eels edged the Sea Eagles 28-24 in a gritty affair at Commbank stadium. Manly then won the return fixture at Brookvale 32-18 and the match earlier this season in round 4, 26-12, four tries to two which makes it 2 in a row for Manly over the Eels. Overall H2H is close, the Eels have the slight edge from the 46 matches played, 24-22. The ground stats are heavily in favour of Parramatta, 62% vs 33% (8-16).
Bookmakers are expecting a close contest, with a 6.5 point handicap set and it does feel quite even with both teams missing the influential halfbacks to Origin selection, and Lomax out to Origin selection is counted somewhat by Jake Trboyevic out concussion. The Eels recent form and the home ground advantage gives the Eels a real chance, but Manly have dodged a bullet so to speak with Tom not being selected for Origin, his presence make this a genuine 50-50 clash.
This match could come down to a late play or a moment of brilliance from one of the stars still on the park. Expect a tight, high-intensity encounter with the forward battle the key here to see who comes out on top. I feel like Manly are less affected from the Origin selections for game one, Olakau’atu is set to be released to play as well barring injury in the build-up to Origin.
With Manly's backline the same as last weekend except DCE removed, I see Manly as probable victors to claim the double over Parramatta in 2025 due to less disruptions but I can't see the Sea Eagles winning by a lot of points – likely 12 or under.
Winning by a 1-12 point margin returns $3.40 as well as Manly to win by 7 or more $1.91 - these are the standout selections here.
The Pick :
Parramatta Eels 20-24 Manly Sea Eagles
