Rugby League

2025-05-25 - New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 25th May 2025 - KO 1605 AEST

New Zealand Warriors

Something that I never thought I would say is the Warriors have been one of the most consistent teams in 2025, and placed second on the ladder with a 7-2 record is well ahead of everyone’s expectations. Since their 30-8 loss to their opponents this weekend, Canberra in Round 1, they’ve won seven of eight, with their only defeat coming against the Melbourne Storm in Round 6, 42-14.

A win here would make 6 in a row to further cement the Warriors towards the top end of the table. The Warriors last match away to Redcliffe 12-16 was built on defensive grit and clinical execution in attack, if that can be repeated against Canberra the Warriors are perhaps building to towards their first premiership?

Coach Andrew Webster has made two key changes to the side that beat the Dolphins. Bunty Afoa returns from a knee injury, and Jackson Ford is back from concussion, filling the void left by James Fisher-Harris and Mitch Barnett who is out for Origin duty.

The backline remains potent, with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak—who has scored 15 tries in his last 17 games at Go Media Stadium—joined by Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in a very dangerous back three.

Canberra Raiders

The Raiders have also impressed in 2025, sitting third on the ladder with a 7-3 record. Their 30-8 demolition of the Warriors in Round 1 set the tone for their season, and they have since notched wins over the Broncos, Sharks, and Eels. However, they’ll be without star back-rower Hudson Young, who is in sublime form on the edge for Canberra, on Origin duty for New South Wales.

The forward pack, led by Joseph Tapine and Corey Horsburgh, will need to match the Warriors physicality in the middle, an area the Warriors have excelled at this season. Tom Starling’s energy at hooker and Morgan Smithies work rate at lock will be vital in maintaining momentum.

The Raiders spine remains unchanged, with halves pairing Jamal Fogarty and young five-eighth Ethan Strange steering the team beautifully around the park. Kaeo Weekes has been electric at fullback, while Xavier Savage and Sebastian Kris provide plenty of speed and finishing ability on the edges.

Canberra Raiders Team News – just the one forced change with Hudson Young out, Simi Sasagi moves into the starting second row, and Noah Martin will make his NRL debut off the bench.

Odds

Warriors are slight favourites, $1.75 to $2.10, the line 1.5 points and total points is 44.5

The Betting Verdict

New Zealand Warriors and the Canberra Raiders at Go Media Stadium is shaping up as one of the most anticipated matchups of round 12. Both sides are entrenched in the top four and bring red-hot form into this contest, with the Warriors looking to avenge a heavy Round one defeat in Las Vegas.

Canberra were all over New Zealand in that match, running in 3 tries to one in the first half to lead 16-4 at the HT break. soon after the break Canberra ran in 2 further tries to put the result to bed, NZ scoring a consolation try at the death, 30-8.

Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita continue to build chemistry in the halves, while the underrated Wayde Egan’s service from dummy-half has been a key to their attacking rhythm. The Warriors will look to dominate through the middle and unleash their strike weapons out wide just like they have in most matches this season.

The Raiders have won three of their last four against the Warriors, including the Round 1 clash in Las Vegas with the overall H2H evenly poised at 24-25. Canberra have traditionally been a poor travelling team and that shows with their ground record 6-13 while the Warriors win 57% at home. New Zealand are unbeaten at home in 2025 and will be eager to settle the season score in front of a vocal Auckland crowd.

This is a genuine top-four battle and match of the round, bookmakers are expecting a tight contest with just 1.5 points set as the handicap. The Warriors home-ground advantage and recent form give them a slight edge, but the Raiders physicality, offloading ability and attacking flair make them a very dangerous opponent for New Zealand.

The biggest loss of personnel falls on the Warriors side, with their two biggest and influential forwards out for this match versus just one for the Raiders. Its hard to say if this will make a big difference or not, but either way this match should remain very close, especially with the Warriors unbeaten at home in 2025.

Expect a high-intensity battle with plenty of attacking highlights, however, look away Warriors fans, I see the Raiders causing an upset of sorts due to their main 2 forwards being out for the match and Canberra winning a close victory to claim the double over New Zealand in 2025.