Rugby League

2025-05-28 - Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Queensland V New South Wales
Rugby League : Australia : SOO 1
Wednesday 28th 2025 - KO 2005 AEST

Queensland

Queensland, coached by Billy Slater, has made some bold selections for the opening match for the 2025 season. Out of form, Kalyn Ponga returns to the starting fullback role, replacing the injured Reece Walsh and 3 debutants. The Maroons backline includes debutant Robert Toia, a rising star in the NRL, but questions remain about the defensive reliability of Queensland’s outside backs with Val Holmes playing on a wing and Hamiso playing in the centres, both unnatural positions for them.

That said, the spine has plenty of experience in big matches, Cherry-Evans again starts at halfback, he is partnered by the enigma that is Cam Munster, Harry Grant and Ponga make up the remainder of the spine. There is also plenty of experience in the forwards, Cotter, Collins and Carrigan have been there before, Fa’asuamaleuai and Fotuaika and Nanai make up the rest of the starting forwards and will certainly need to make their presence felt against a huge NSW pack.

Queensland Team changes – 3 debutants named by Billy Slater, Toia in the centres after just 10 NRL matches, Fermor and Loiero both start from the bench.

New South Wales

New South Wales, under returning coach Laurie Daley, has retained much of the squad that triumphed in 2024. The Blues spine is particularly formidable, with Nathan Cleary returning from injury to partner Mitch Moses in the halves who was crucial in winning the series at Suncorp in game 3 last season.

Cleary’s game management and kicking precision will be vital, especially in the hostile environment of Suncorp. Dylan Edwards, remains a key figure at fullback, offering both leadership and stability at the back and Reece Robson at hooker who was incredible in 2024 make up a very strong spine.

Only one player named to debut, the impressive Max King for the Bulldogs who has been instrumental for Canterburys run in 2025 so far, he has been superb on defence and makes plenty of metres, will be interesting to see how he goes at the top level of the game. The starting props, Haas and Barnett both deserve their selections, then throw in Crichton, Martin and Yeo, that is close to the best NSW forward pack ever assembled.

New South Wales Team Changes – Luai can feel very unlucky after winning the last series, Cleary comes back in after missing the past 5 Origins and the series win last season. Centre, Bradman Best misses out with an abundance of choice in this position, Crichton and Latrell Mitchell are named and as mentioned above, Max King will debut.

Odds

Very rare that NSW are favourites when the match is in Queensland, $2.25 to $1.65, the line 2.5 points and combined points 39.5

The Betting Verdict

As the 2025 State of Origin series kicks off at Suncorp Stadium on May 28, anticipation is high for another chapter in rugby league’s fiercest rivalry. Queensland, playing at home, will be eager to reclaim the shield after a narrow 2-1 series loss in 2024. Meanwhile, New South Wales enters the series with momentum and a squad brimming with confidence and continuity.

Historically, Queensland has dominated at Suncorp Stadium, winning 66% of their matches there. However, NSW’s comeback win in Game 3 of 2024 at the same venue may have broken that psychological barrier. Overall, Queensland leads the Origin series tally with 69 wins to NSW’s 58.

In terms of recent form, NSW has won three of the last five Origin matches, including the gritty comeback in Game 3 last year. Their ability to adapt mid-game and execute under pressure has improved significantly under Maguire in 2024 and can be expected to continue under Daley’s renewed leadership.

As with any Origin match, the forward battle will be crucial. NSW’s pack is heavier and more physical, clearly making a statement we will run through you, while Queensland has opted for mobility and agility. This contrast could define the tempo of the match. If Queensland can control possession and avoid early fatigue, they may neutralize the Blues’ power game. However, NSW’s bench depth and versatility give them a clear edge in the latter stages.

According to Bet365, NSW are slight favourites for Game one, priced at 1.65, while Queensland are at an unprecedented $2.25 for a match at Suncorp. This does not really reflect the home-ground advantage and Queensland’s historical dominance in Brisbane. However, for the overall series, NSW are favourites at 1.60, with Queensland at 2.30, indicating broader confidence in the Blues consistency and incredible squad depth.

Game one is likely to be a tightly contested affair. Queensland’s home advantage and emotional edge will keep them competitive, but NSW’s superior bench, defensive structure, and playmaking spine give them the upper hand, expect a low-scoring, physical battle with momentum swings.

Queensland are very tough to beat at home and still have a very good team selected so don’t be surprised if the Maroons take game one. However, New South Wales to win Game one by 4-6 points in what will likely be a low scoring match with all the focus around defence is the most likely result.

Of the 45 series played in State of Origin history, only 12 game #1's have exceeded a combined score of 40 points, therefore, the best betting option is taking the combined points under 39.5 as this is very high for an Origin match that is usually very tight.

If you want a high-paying roughy bet :
- First try scorer - Liam Martin (NSW) at $29
- NSW to win by 1-12 points at 2.60.