Rugby League
2025-06-06 - Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 6th June 2025 - KO 1800 AEST
Melbourne Storm
The Storm are in ominous form, winning five of their last six games and averaging 33 points per match in 2025. Their most recent outings a 64-0 demolition of the Wests Tigers and a composed 28-16 win over the plucky Titans, this highlights their attacking strength and defensive grit.
Craig Bellamy’s side is disciplined, clinical and ruthless at home, where they’ve won 76% of their games at AAMI Park. Melbourne sit 4th with a 7-4 record but hold a commanding, best in competition +147 points differential showing yet again Melbourne will be there at the pointy end of the competition come September.
Ryan Papenhuyzen is back to his electric best, yet another NSW player that doesn’t make the current team while Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes continue to orchestrate the attack with precision. The forward pack, led by big Tui Kamikamica and Josh King, is dominating the middle third, and the Storm’s edge defence has tightened significantly in recent weeks.
Team news – Xavier Coates and Harry Grant return after being rested in Round 13
North Queensland Cowboys
The Cowboys have been one of the most inconsistent teams in 2025. While they’ve shown glimpses of brilliance—like their 50-18 win over the Titans—they’ve also suffered heavy defeats, including a 31-26 loss to the Sharks and a 24-6 defeat to the Sea Eagles. Their defence has been a major concern, conceding an average of 26 points per game. This places the Cowboys in 6th, 5-1-5 record being 6th is a touch misleading, mostly due to the fact they have had 2 byes providing them 4 competition points.
Todd Payten’s side has struggled to contain solid attacking teams, and their edge defence has been particularly vulnerable. Valentine Holmes and Scott Drinkwater offer great attacking spark, but the Cowboys forward pack has been outmuscled and lacking that go forward is costing the Cowboys a lot this season.
Team News – the same 17 is named for the Cowboys.
Odds
The visiting Cowboys will start as huge underdogs here, $1.21 to $4.50, the line is 14.5 points and total combined points 51.5
The Betting Verdict
The Round 14 NRL clash between the Melbourne Storm and the North Queensland Cowboys at AAMI Park is shaping up as a classic David vs Goliath battle. The Storm is flying high in the top four, while the Cowboys are clinging to finals hopes and desperate to find consistency. With both teams coming off contrasting performances, this matchup offers a plenty of great betting opportunities.
Melbourne also boasts a dominant historical record against the Cowboys, winning 32 of their 45 meetings. While at this venue, the Cowboys have only won 2 of 8 games at AAMI Park and will need a near-perfect performance to stay competitive against a red-hot Storm team aiming to solidify their top 4 credentials.
Incredibly, the Cowboys have managed to win the last 3 meetings against the Storm, however with some key players out like Taumalolo and Tualagi and the Melbourne welcoming back Coates and Grant from Origin it looks to be a tough night at the office ahead for North Queensland.
Despite Melbournes scoring power, the Cowboys inconsistency in attack and the Storms defensive strength suggests this could stay under combined points which is set rather high at 51.5 points. The Storms superior form, home-ground advantage, and attacking cohesion make them the clear pick. The Cowboys will need to defy history and form trends to stay in the contest. I see the best betting option here with the Storm to win comfortably, 13+ and with adding in Coates or Papenhuyzen anytime try scorers in same game multis could make for an excellent return.
Barring injury Coates will almost certainly score here returning $1.75
The Pick :
Melbourne Storm 31 – 16 North Queensland Cowboys
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Suggested option: Take the Melbourne to win 13+ returning $1.70 with Bet365For a secondary option consider a bet on total combined points under 51.5 points at odds of $1.91
