Italian Serie A
2025-09-19 - Lecce vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Friday, 19 September 2025, 20:45 CET
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Lecce Team News
We expected a different kind of performance in Bergamo against Atalanta. Lecce lost that match with four goals conceded and, surprisingly, they scored too. In this league, shots from the edge of the box seem to be a very good way to score, as marking the player who makes the shot is totally optional. Atalanta did little more than these long shots, and Ndri from Lecce scored a beautiful one.
You'd think that because of this result Lecce is suddenly an overish team, but they're not, three of these five goals were surgical long shots. Lecce is an underish team through and through.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari is doing well so far. A point against Fiorentina, rescued with a late goal, a minimal defeat to Napoli, and a 2-0 home win against Parma. Four points from three rounds -- that's the pace at which you stay in the league without any problems as you're in mid table.
Truth be told, Cagliari is a really poor visitor, third-worst in the league last season. It's the home ground where they get most of their points. Still, they reached three wins on the road, all against fellow relegation candidates - Parma, Monza and Verona. Lecce won 1-0 here last season before Cagliari won 4-1 at home, and the season before both meetings ended 1-1.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha - Pierotti, Stulic, Morente. Coach Di Francesco.
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Prati, Folorunsho - S.Esposito, Gaetano - Belotti. Coach Pisacane.
Andrea Belotti is announced as the starter for Cagliari for the first time this season. Luvumbo is out for a few weeks.
The Betting Market
The bookmakers don't know what will happen, as indicated by three almost even prices on the three possible outcomes of this relegation three-pointer. On Lecce you can get 2.79, on Cagliari the price is 2.91 - and these are the enhanced prices at Bet365 - while the draw is always priced the same in these situations, between 3.00 and 3.10.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome at 1.55, and this is basically as low as it gets in Serie A. Betting on unders in such situations, when the game is expected to be a bore fest, usually (but not always) pays off.
Both Teams To Score, on the other hand, is a trickier market. You get 2.15 on Yes and 1.78 on No. We're undecided here. Because of the low-scoring nature of this encounter, obviously BTTS-No is the better bet, but on the other hand if one side scores then the other side could too. 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 are all very possible results here. Three of them are a BTTS-No winning bet. Make of that what you will.
The Betting Verdict
This is a classic relegation three-pointer where the hosts have the inherent advantage, yet it isn't reflected in the odds. There's a reason for this. Lecce is ill-suited to play in the role of favourite, and they're meeting a side that is known to overpower fellow relegation candidates in one way or another.
So we'll make a somewhat surprising bet here, as most punters will probably lean towards a 1-0 here because that's the way this whole football betting thing should work. We'll back the cunning side that knows how to get the points instead, and we'll do so with the help of an Asian Handicap that gets us our stake back in case of a draw. At the very least, Cagliari will equalize if Lecce manages to take the lead, so this is a big safety net for us, yet we double our stake if Cagliari ends up winning this.
This is Serie A, after all. One does not bet on the obvious.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lecce 0-1 Cagliari
