Italian Serie A
2025-09-21 - Lazio vs Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Sunday, 21 September 2025, 12:30 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Lazio Team News
It seems Lazio might develop a slight problem with road games this season. They lost 2-0 at Como and 1-0 at Sassuolo already, so two losses to nil against beatable opposition, yet won 4-0 at home against Hellas Verona.
We'd usually expect Lazio to do better on the road, as they were one of the best visitors in the league in the last couple of seasons. Their offensive and direct style would make them a really tricky team to host, but this season this hasn't yet become evident in results.
At this point it's impossible to tell if Lazio just needs to gel a bit better, or is this team regressing because the roster is practically the same as last season without any notable refreshments.
AS Roma Team News
Just when we thought Roma is on a roll, they lost 0-1 at home to Torino. The match was played on Torino's half but as Roma doesn't really impose itself physically and doesn't force the ball into the net, but instead is looking for a cunning solution, if you don't lose defensive order they can't score against you.
Also, Dybala had to go out at half-time. So the second half was even worse, and then, to add insult to injury (literally), Torino created their first counter attack in the game and scored. That's it. Roma played, Torino went forward once and scored.
So much for Gasperini, an otherwise offensive coach who did wonders with Atalanta, making Roma an unstoppable offensive force. In three matches so far, the total goal average of Roma's games is exactly 1.00. Won 1-0 against Bologna and Pisa, lost 0-1 to Torino.
This team is going nowhere and will have yet another disappointing season. From a betting perspective, well, don't bet on them to win. Watching Roma try to score a goal is like watching someone roll a huge stone uphill.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares - Guendouzi, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru - Cancellieri, Castellanos, Zaccagni. Coach Baroni.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Celik, Mancini, Ndicka - Wesley, Kone, Cristante, Angelino - Soule, El Aynaoui - Ferguson. Coach Gasperini.
Roma will certainly be without Paulo Dybala, which means their offensive power is halved.
The Betting Market
Roma is a slight favourite as they're seen as the better side, even if they haven't shown much so far this season. Lazio isn't a top Italian side either but they can do well on their day. You can get up to 2.65 on Roma and 2.80 on Lazio.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome with a price of 1.60.
The Betting Verdict
It doesn't matter who the dedicated home team is, as Lazio and Roma share Stadio Olimpico, of course. Some people forget that when they're examining the H2H of city derbies. Anyway, the Derby della Capitale (what a missed chance to call it the Eternal Derby as Rome is the Eternal City!) is usually a cagey affair with few goals scored. The last seven meetings all saw Under 2.5 Goals.
There's a reason for this. In a heated atmosphere such as this, where pride is at stake, you'll do whatever it takes to prevent a dangerous chance for the opponent. You pull the shirt, you dive into tackles, you get a yellow or even a red card just to prevent a goal.
See where we're going with this? The last meeting had six yellow cards and that's low by this derby's standards. The one before had eight yellows and three reds. Eight or nine, plus a red card seems to be the golden standard.
You'll find Over 6.5 Cards at Bet365, but you'd be wise to shop for a bookmaker that has booking points instead. Cloudbet has Over 6.5 Booking Points where 1=Yellow, 2=Red, so if there's a red you only need five yellows in order to make it past the 6.5 mark. This is superb value.
As far as the final result goes, we're giving a slight edge to Lazio. Roma is a silky team that avoids duels and doesn't play very physical, so they're ill-suited for the demands of this derby. And they won't have Dybala.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 1-0 Roma
