English Premier
2025-09-27 - Manchester City vs Burnley
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 27th September 2025 - Kick Off 3pm
Manchester City
The late goal conceded at the Emirates Stadium will have felt like a huge blow for Manchester City after defending the early lead relatively comfortably. One mistake with the high line allowed Arsenal to spring clear and equalise and it already feels like Manchester City have little room for error if they are going to push towards a genuine title challenge.
Five Premier League games have been played and Manchester City have only earned 7 points, which leaves them in 9th place in the League table and already 8 points behind Champions and leaders Liverpool. The pressure is on to secure maximum points in the fixtures before the October international break and Manchester City begin at home where they have a 1-0-1 record in the top flight.
Manchester City beat League One Huddersfield Town in the League Cup Third Round on Wednesday and that means they are unbeaten in 4 games in all competitions since consecutive defeats last month against Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton. The home loss to Spurs will have hurt, but Manchester City have beaten Manchester United and Napoli at the Etihad Stadium since that defeat.
Ryan Ait-Nouri, Abdukodir Khusanov and Omar Marmoush are all doubts, but still hoping to play a part before the next set of international matches. Erling Haaland has been dealing with a back issue, but he has continued to score goals and should be fit to lead the line having been rested in the League Cup.
Burnley
The fringe players failed to impress Scott Parker and so a more familiar lineup will be selected after Burnley were dumped out of the League Cup by Cardiff City on Tuesday. It is clear that the Premier League is the only real focus for the manager and the Club this season and Burnley have shown enough early on this season that they can compete at this level.
Despite a tough opening fixture list, Burnley are 16th in the Premier League table and have 4 points on the board after earning another last weekend. They do make the relatively short journey to the Etihad Stadium with a 0-0-2 record away from home in the top flight and Burnley have conceded three goals in both of those matches.
Burnley have not won any of their last 4 games in all competitions and they have lost 3 of those, although injury time goals have been needed from both Manchester United and Liverpool to secure maximum points. On the opening weekend of the season, Burnley were beaten 3-0 at Tottenham Hotspur and also conceded three goals at Old Trafford.
Jacob Bruun Larsen could be available, but this fixture looks like it comes too soon for Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer. Scott Parker rang the changes for the League Cup tie against Cardiff City so the key players should be fit and raring to go.
Head to Head
Two seasons ago, Manchester City did the Premier League double over Burnley and have beaten them 13 times in a row in all competitions.
The defeat at the Etihad Stadium was the tenth in a row for Burnley, but they did snap a run of 6 games without a goal when scoring a consolation in injury time on their last visit in January 2024.
Prediction
It was not a performance or a style you would have come to expect from a Pep Guardiola managed team, but Manchester City were minutes away from winning 0-1 at Arsenal last weekend in what would have been described as a professional away performance.
Manchester City were happy for Arsenal to have the ball, but defended really well and limited the home team to few chances before a lack of concentration in injury time.
The manager may see it as a point gained all the same, but Manchester City are 8 points behind leaders Liverpool and need to find a consistent run of wins. In previous years you would expect Manchester City to do that, but this squad does not look as strong and opponents are no longer as concerned about facing Guardiola's team as they may have been.
In saying that, it is still a huge challenge for a newly promoted team to turn up and play their football at the Etihad Stadium.
Scott Parker's Burnley have at least shown they are willing to bite down on the gum-shield and try and absorb what an opponent can throw at them. They defended well against Liverpool until the final seconds of that home fixture and have shown resilience in coming from behind twice at Old Trafford before conceding another injury time Penalty.
There is pace in the forward areas and a direct style will look to hurt Manchester City on the counter attack, while the team will be willing to dig in and frustrate the hosts by limiting spaces.
It is going to be the right approach to give Burnley a chance to survive, but they have struggled to contain the attacking threats in both away games played this season. Both Spurs and Manchester United created a lot of good chances against Burnley and Manchester City should have enough about them to break down the visitors and record an eleventh straight home win against this opponent.
There is a chance that Manchester City will score a third goal and that may be enough to cover this Asian Handicap line, but the better approach may be taking the home team to win with a clean sheet. They have secured clean sheets in back to back home games and only conceded that Gabriel Martinelli goal in the last 4 played in all competitions.
Manchester City's defensive numbers from the last three games will give the team confidence and backing a home win with a clean sheet looks the right approach to take.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester City 2-0 Burnley
