Italian Serie A
2025-09-27 - Cagliari vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Saturday, 27 September 2025, 20:45 CET
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Cagliari Team News
The most important thing to know about Cagliari is that they don't like the position of a defensive small team. They like to pack a punch despite their lack of roster quality, and are enjoying football, especially in front of their own fans.
This is essentially an overish team, because although they rarely score first, they can play offense with great success when trailing. This is not the type of team that sits back after 0-1 and waits for a counter attack while limiting damage -- they go forward.
Count on Cagliari to try to score here, they're playing at home and they know the entire Italy is watching this evening game.
Inter Team News
Inter probably forgot the two consecutive defeats to Udinese and Juventus, to a certain extent at least, as the 0-2 win in Amsterdam in the Champions League and the 2-1 home win against Sassuolo in the domestic league have seemingly put this side on the right track.
This isn't that same Inter from two seasons ago that wins every game and confidently marches to a scudetto. This is, in best-case scenario, the Inter from three seasons ago that was a notoriously shaky favourite.
The key players are the same, anyway, and the five-man midfield that does all the running is the same. The only exception is Petar Sucic, an amazing midfielder who slotted right into the starting lineup, but who can't yet be relied on to carry the team in every game. He only carries it when he wants to.
There's a significant downgrade at the manager position too, as it was Simone Inzaghi who invented this team, and Christian Chivu didn't add anything new. All this combined leads to a gradual decline for the Nerazzuri. Even with the decline they're still a monstrous team, it's just that now those old weaknesses have started emerging again.
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (3-5-2): Caprile - Ze Pedro, Mina, Luperto - Palestra, Adopo, Prati, Folorunsho, Obert - S.Esposito, Belotti. Coach Pisacane.
Inter (3-5-2): Martinez - Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni - Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Sucic, Dimarco - Thuram, Lautaro. Coach Chivu.
The Betting Market
Inter is a 1.53 favourite, probably not so much because of the current form, but because of dominance against this particular opponent. Whereas Cagliari is known to upset giants, and Inter is also known to drop points against minnows, it's a rare occurence in this matchup. In last ten, it's 8-2-0 for Inter.
The Betting Verdict
This looks like an Inter win alright, but not at 1.53. That would be the price on a team that steamrolls opponents, and Inter has shown vulnerabilities this season already. They lost to Udinese and barely won at home against Sassuolo. Defence is nowhere to be seen.
Five of the last six meetings with Cagliari saw Over 2.5 Goals, and four of these had a four-goal totals, too. Cagliari either doesn't manage to defend well against Inter, or chooses not to sit back. Either way, this particular matchup has goals almost every time, and we'll bet on this trend to continue.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cagliari 1-2 Inter
