World Cup
2025-10-14 - Italy vs Israel
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: World Cup Qualifier
Tuesday 14th October 2025 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Italy
Another three points have been secured in this World Cup Qualifying Group, but Italy's hopes of finishing top of the section continue to fade thanks to the relentless march of Norway. Winning out will give Italy an outside chance of securing an automatic spot at the next World Cup Finals, but the likelihood is that the side will have to win a Play Off tie next March.
Earlier this year Italy were being beaten in the Nations League Quarter Final by Germany and that allowed Norway to take an early lead in the Group which they have consolidated in the last six months. With three rounds of fixtures left, Italy are 2nd in the Group and 6 points behind Norway, although they do have a game in hand. Winning this game on Tuesday will almost certainly secure Italy a top two finish, and that is the first port of call for the team.
Italy were thumped 3-0 in Oslo in June, but they have won their last 4 games and that has given the team some confidence. They were beaten in the last 2 home games in the Nations League against France and Germany, but Italy have beaten Moldova and Estonia in this Qualifying Group.
Alessandro Bastoni is suspended, while Moise Kean picked up a knock in the last Qualifier and is set to miss out.
Israel
Despite suspending Russia from competing in international football, FIFA President Gianni Infantino stated that he feels politics and sport should not mix when asked why Israel are allowed to try and earn a spot at the next World Cup Finals. Protests in the stands against Israel has become common and there was more of the same when they visited Norway on Match Day 7.
It certainly would not have helped Israel's team to focus, but that is not the only reason they were well beaten by Norway to be left in 3rd place in the Group and with fading hopes of finishing in the Play Off spots. The outlook will look very different if Israel can upset the odds and win Udinese on Tuesday, but this is a team that have now conceded 14 goals in three games against Norway and Italy in this Group.
Israel had won 3 in a row going into a game against Italy last month, but they were beaten 4-5 in a fixture hosted in Debrecen and followed that up in a 5-0 loss in Norway this past Saturday. They have won away games at Moldova and Estonia within this Group, but Israel were Relegated from League A of the Nations League and suffered 2 losses in 3 away matches in that competition.
Head to Head
It was a remarkable fixture played between these nations in Debrecen last month- Israel led 1-0 and 2-1, but were 2-4 down with three minutes left and still managed to pull things back to 4-4. However, an injury time goal earned Italy three points in a 4-5 victory.
They played in the same Nations League Group last year and Italy won both games, including a 4-1 win in this Stadium.
Italy have hosted Israel 4 times previously and won 3 of those fixtures.
Prediction
Additional security measures are in place whenever Israel's national team or club teams are playing in UEFA competition and that will be the case on Tuesday.
This has to be a real distraction for the players and that makes matches against some of the tougher opponents all the more difficult.
Israel were crushed 5-0 in Oslo on Saturday and that leaves their hopes of at least securing a Play Off spot fading fast. Another defeat on Tuesday will all but end their interest and that is an additional pressure for Israel to face.
Italian fans would have been expecting more than the team trying to scrape into the Play Offs, and there is plenty of pressure on this team.
It won't be lost on Italy that they have failed to reach the last two World Cup Finals and both times due to Play Off failures against Sweden and North Macedonia. That will mean some trepidation heading into those matches, but Italy have to focus in trying to secure at least that position by fending off any lingering interest Israel have.
They crushed Israel here in the Nations League in 2024 and Italy should have too much for a team that have conceded 14 goals in three matches against the Italians and Norway in this Qualifying Group.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Italy 4-1 Israel
