English Premier

2025-10-18 - Brighton vs Newcastle United

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Brighton v Newcastle United
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 18th October 2025 - Kick Off 3pm

Brighton

There are a huge number of clubs in the Premier League this season who are struggling for any kind of consistency and that is perhaps why the current League leaders have been able to drop five points. In recent years the standards have been set by Pep Guardiola's Manchester City, but this season feels different and that should mean the likes of Brighton Football Club are challenging for European spots.

Investment made by the board has certainly raised expectations and Brighton would have been targeting a return to UEFA Football regardless of how this season opened up. The Seagulls are 12th in the Premier League table, but the 9 points on the board means they are very much in tough with those above them in a rapidly changing Division. Home form is going to be important and Brighton need to improve the 1-2-0 record at the Amex Stadium.

Brighton scored a late equaliser at Wolves ahead of the October international break and that means they are unbeaten in 4 games in all competitions since losing 2-1 at Bournemouth. The unbeaten run at the Amex Stadium was extended to 7 Premier League games after the 2-2 draw with Tottenham Hotspur last month, although Fabian Hurzeler will feel that was two dropped points after seeing Brighton move into a 2-0 lead.

Joel Veltman and Kaoru Mitoma are expected to be available for selection, but Jack Hinshelwood may not return until after the November internationals.

Newcastle United

Frustration would have been building as Newcastle United created chance after chance, but could not breakthrough against Nottingham Forest. That was mainly being felt from the St James' Park stands, but the players did not stop believing and they recorded a comfortable 2-0 win heading into the latest international break.

Like many, it has been a mixed start to the new season for Newcastle United, but the three points earned last time out has pushed them back up into 11th place in the Premier League table and with 9 points secured. The large majority have been earned at home, but Newcastle United are one of two teams yet to taste an away defeat in the top flight having compiled a 0-3-0 record.

Newcastle United fans would not have wanted the break in the action as international football took over for two weeks and that is because they have watched their team win 3 of the last 4 games in all competitions. The Champions League campaign has gotten moving after the 0-4 win at Union Saint-Gilloise, but all 3 away Premier League games have ended goalless.

Dan Burn and Jacob Ramsey should be available, but both Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento are expected to miss the next month. There is a concern about the injury picked up by new signing Yoane Wissa and he is not expected to be returning before the November international break.

Head to Head

Brighton were unbeaten in all 3 meetings with Newcastle United in the 2024/25 season and they earned four points from two Premier League games.

The fixture at the Amex Stadium ended 1-1 and Brighton are unbeaten in all 8 home games played against Newcastle United since returning to the top flight.

However, 5 of those matches have ended in draws.

Prediction

There have been just twenty-seven goalless draws in the Premier League in the last couple of years so seeing Newcastle United be involved in 3 straight away Premier League fixtures ending in that manner is a real surprise.

Defensively Newcastle United have been pretty sound, but they have not exactly been producing a lot of quality in the final third in those matches. Yes, they should have won at Aston Villa on the opening weekend, but both Leeds United and Bournemouth may feel they were better than The Magpies when hosting them and this is another tough away day test for Eddie Howe's team.

Credit has to be given to the team for putting together the clean sheets they have, but Brighton have not lost to Newcastle United in the last 5 meetings and they have been playing pretty well.

Inconsistency in the final third has been a problem for Fabian Hurzeler's men and that has to change if they are going to string some positive results together.

Brighton are unbeaten in 4 games in all competitions, which will give them confidence and belief, but they have conceded late goals to drop points against Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur at the Amex Stadium. Sandwiched in between is a late winner against Manchester City and this is another game that is expected to come down to the wire.

You have to imagine both teams will believe they can influence this game in their own direction and it is one of a number of competitive Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend.

Factoring in Brighton's recent history against Newcastle United means the home team deserve the edge.

Statistics from the last couple of years have pointed to a lessening of home advantage in the Premier League, but that has not been the case early in this campaign.

Brighton will create chances and they perhaps deserve a slight edge in a game where the draw is really in play.