Italian Serie A
2025-10-29 - Inter Milan vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Wednesday, 29 October 2025, 20:45 CET
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Inter Team News
This is worrying -- whenever faced with strong opposition this season, Inter lost the game. Juventus, and now Napoli. We know Inter is a flat-track bully but we still expected them to at least have a fighting chance in those big matches. Instead, the stats say they did well but the defence didn't hold. Napoli scored three and Juventus scored four.
Now the question to ask is in which group does Fiorentina belong to. Are they the team that is inferior to Inter and that will therefore lose big, or a good side that can cause problems to Nerazzuri?
Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina keeps winning in the Conference League - four out of four - and failing to win in Serie A - zero out of eight despite meeting Cagliari, Torino, Como and Pisa.
Fiorentina is worse than last season, they're an offensive-minded team that can't really score but still prefers to play fun football, while defence is optional. They can't control a football game, protect a lead, establish themselves as a favourite on the pitch.
You can usually count on BTTS-Yes to go through and on Fiorentina to fail to win, but due to sheer results distribution Fiorentina will cause a shock soon. Could they win here in Milano? Why not. They're wild enough. They'll either lose 3-1 or win 1-3.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni - Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Sucic, Carlos Augusto - Lautaro, Bonny. Coach Chivu.
Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Sohm, Gosens - Kean, Gudmundsson. Coach Pioli.
Thuram, Mkhitaryan and Darmian are out for Inter.
The Betting Market
Inter is a 1.38 favourite and the price is dropping, too. A lot of punters seem to have taken the bait. If you want to call and raise, Inter Milan AH-1.50 is priced at 2.05.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.73 but at the same time Both Teams To Score: NO is the favoured option at 1.80. There's money to be made in the BTTS market if you're leaning one way or another.
The Betting Verdict
As usual when faced with a fixture in which the home side is a huge favourite, we're left with a task to decide if the favourite will win with a handicap or not. The standard tendency is to always say yes, which is often times wrong as teams don't really care about winning with handicaps. They just want the points. However, Fiorentina is so bad that they'll likely concede at least two or three goals here.
This means that even Inter can push the totals past three singlehandedly, without any involvement from Fiorentina. If Fiorentina scores, then Over is very likely. More often than not, this fixture sees goals, and Fiorentina scores more often than you think they would.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter Milan 3-1 Fiorentina
