German Bundesliga
2025-11-01 - Mainz vs Werder Bremen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
MEWA Arena – Mainz
Saturday, 01st November 2025 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Mainz
Mainz are going from bad to worse. They lost all their last four Bundesliga matches by conceding 2+ goals in each defeat, plus they got eliminated from the DFB Cup on Wednesday, losing 0-2 against VfB Stuttgart, who fielded bench players in the starting line-up.
Now Mainz has 6 defeats in 8 Bundesliga matches this season, and are likely to battle against relegation this season.
Leaking goals is a major problem. The last time Mainz kept a clean sheet was in February of this year, when they won 2-0 against St.Pauli. Since then, they have conceded in 19 straight Bundesliga matches, setting a new all-time negative record.
And when it comes to home form, don’t expect much of Mainz. They clearly lost all their four Bundesliga home games so far, scoring only three goals.
Werder Bremen
Unlike Mainz, who were involved in the DFB Cup, Werder Bremen have over a week to prepare for this game. Their last game played was last Friday, when they beat Union Berlin 1-0 at home.
Last week’s win was Werder Bremen’s third unbeaten Bundesliga game in a row (two wins), so they have some momentum going. They played really well in recent games, and some players, like Victor Boniface, who was rusty, finally showed better performances, reminding us a little of his time at Bayer Leverkusen.
Werder Bremen has conceded many goals so far, but their game last week was the third in eight matches in which they kept a clean sheet.
Another interesting fact about Werder Bremen is that they have won each of their last four Bundesliga duels against Mainz, their longest winning streak against any Bundesliga team. Also, three of those four wins were with a clean sheet.
The Betting Verdict
Odds look strange here. They should be opposite. How can rubbish Mainz be such a big favorite against Werder Bremen? Something doesn’t add up.
Let’s summarize some things for a clearer picture, and then you decide.
Werder Bremen is unbeaten in three games, well-rested, and have beaten Mainz four times in a row.
Mainz has lost 5 straight competitive games by conceding twice or more, lost all their four home games this season, lost again in the midweek cup game at home, have no defense, and play terribly.
So, why exactly are Mainz favorites? Do people expect them to magically wake up and play better? I’m not buying that.
To me, Werder Bremen is the better side that deserves backing. Mainz has their back against the wall, so they should get some spark in this game, but I can’t back them after such terrible displays recently and poor team atmosphere.
Werder Bremen’s odds are generous, so back the visitors here to get a valuable win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mainz 0-1 Werder Bremen
