Italian Serie A
2025-10-30 - Cagliari vs Sassuolo
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Thursday, 30 October 2025, 18:30 CET
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Cagliari Team News
If you look at Cagliari's recent home results - this side doesn't perform on the road - you'll see several trends. The most important one is that they don't lose at home unless they play against one of the big teams, as was the case in their two most recent outings against Inter and Bologna. The latter isn't a big side but always somehow beats Cagliari to nil.
This season, as we said last time Cagliari played at home, this side only had one winnable game, against Parma, and won it 2-0. Unlike so many other relegation candidates that don't have a clear game plan for being the favourite against a fellow struggler, Cagliari has a plan that works in these scenarios. They play a slow game but are perfectly capable of releasing the breaks and chasing the score. It is very, very difficult for a visitor to win on Sardinia.
Sassuolo Team News
Sassuolo has a game plan of its own. This side is basing its strategy around a sucker punch. They will literally try to poke the ball into the net from unexpected angles, and more often than not, it works. It's difficult to describe it unless you've seen it. Due to the pace of execution, it catches so many defences and goalkeepers off guard.
The other part of this strategy is that Sassulo will spend 80% of the time defending. Not actual defending, as they're not particularly able, but simply putting bodies behind the ball.
All this also means Sassuolo is an underish team, unless something extraordinary happens and they score a few of their cheap shots or get a penalty kick awarded for or against them.
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Prati, Deiola - S.Esposito, Folorunsho - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
Sassuolo (4-3-3): Muric - Walukiewicz, Idzes, Romagna, Doig - Vrancx, Matic, Kone - Berardi, Pinamonti, Lauriente. Coach Grosso.
The Betting Market
Cagliari is just a slight favourite at 2.63 and this is where all the value is. The price on Sassuolo is 2.80.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.67 but we'd leave this alone; this match can erupt into a goal fest if Sassuolo scores, as then Cagliari will release the shackles and go score two. Yet you can't bet on this so 2.20 for the Over isn't worth it.
The Both Teams To Score market is rightfully split down the middle at 1.91-1.91, and it is indeed a coin flip.
The Betting Verdict
It's difficult to expect Sassuolo will pull their usual trick on Cagliari, a side that's far from naive and that has seen its share of counter-attacking teams in the last two years and hasn't lost to any of them. Any of them. The clubs that are capable of taking points from Cagliari are the likes of Inter, Atalanta, Roma, Juventus - and Bologna. Relegation six-pointers? Cagliari doesn't lose those.
That's why we think AH+0 on Cagliari is almost like a free bet. In the worst-case scenario Cagliari will draw and you get your stake back. In the event of a home win, which isn't unlikely at all, you win on 1.85. Free bet indeed.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cagliari 1-0 Sassuolo
