Italian Serie A
2025-11-23 - Inter Milan vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 23 November 2025, 20:45 CET
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Inter Team News
We said it before, Inter looks great until they meet a strong side. You can't make any conclusions from their wins against Fiorentina, Verona, Kairat Almaty or Lazio. You can only rate this team for what it is when they play the truly good sides such as Napoli, Juventus or Milan. And the picture here isn't pretty.
Inter is still the highest-scoring side in Serie A by far with 26 goals in 11 rounds, and is the best-performing favourite as they usually walk all over lesser sides. This is their route to the title. They're also very good against the not-really-top sides such as Lazio or Fiorentina as they overpower them with ease.
It's just that they have a lot of problems when they meet competent sides. Or it's us thinking they have to thrash these sides too and they are, in the end, only human.
AC Milan Team News
Every time you think Milan has a chance to go to the top and finally claim the status of a scudetto candidate, they squander it. Milan played a 2-2 draw at Parma, and although coming back from a difficult road trip with a point isn't all that bad, it's alarming how easily Milan concedes against the lesser teams. As a result, Milan is fifth on the table with 22 points - although this can change rapidly if Milan wins here, probably only to squander it again next week against Lazio.
After this match and the two duels against Lazio in the league and in the cup, the schedule really eases up for Milan. In 14 league matches after that, they'll play only one strong side, Roma. And Bologna too on the road. In all other matches, Milan will be a clean favourite.
It remains to be seen if Milan can finally claim the chances they're given.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni - Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Sucic, Carlos Augusto - Lautaro, Bonny. Coach Chivu.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Nkunku, Leao. Coach Allegri.
The Betting Market
Inter is a 1.95 favourite and you can get 3.80 if you think Milan will shock their city rivals, which they most certainly can. Over/Under is split at 1.93 so you can get some value here if you're leaning one way or the other. Milan's derbies this season were largely low-scoring but then again, their defence is a serious liability.
The Betting Verdict
You'll probably find it interesting that Inter hasn't managed to beat Milan in last five attempts despite being the superior side -- Milan has a 3-2-0 in these five derbies. And that's without Modric, in a poor shape. We could say that this is a proper derby, it can go either way, regardless of how teams look like on paper and regardless of their form.
What we can be fairly certain of is that Inter will find a way to score against the porous Milan defence, and that Milan, on the other hand, will score through sheer willpower or some moment of magic.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter Milan 2-1 AC Milan
