NFL Football
2025-11-27 - Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Week 13
Thursday 27th November 2025 - Scheduled 4:30pm
9:30pm (British Time)
Preview
Non-Conference games may not be as significant in the first half of the season, but by Week 13, every game on the schedule matters.
For the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-5), it is vital that they build on Week 12 wins that have kept Playoff hopes alive.
This second Thanksgiving Day game sees both the Cowboys and Chiefs sitting in tenth place in their respective Conferences, but also noting that teams currently occupying the last of the Wild Card spots have only been beaten four times. Chasing down Divisional leaders will be difficult as games are running down, but both teams have just kept Playoff hopes alive with battling wins and that will give them some confidence.
The Kansas City Chiefs looked to be on course for another defeat that would have dropped them below 0.500 when trailing by double digits against the AFC South leading Indianapolis Colts. However, they rallied for an Overtime win to just keep themselves in a position to attack the Wild Card spots.
Dallas were in a bigger hole having fallen 21-0 behind against Divisional rivals and NFC East leaders Philadelphia Eagles, but the road team made enough errors to allow the Cowboys to rally for the upset.
Building on that is key and the Dallas Offensive unit are playing with enough confidence to believe they can do that, as long as they can clear up some of the drops that have been affecting recent performance.
It will feel important for Dallas to find a way to at least make the Kansas City Chiefs respect the run- the Chiefs have been pretty stout up front in recent games and they will feel like the real winners if they can force the Cowboys to become one-dimensional.
However, any impact that can be made by the Offensive Line will then strengthen Dak Prescott and a passing game that has been very explosive. George Pickens and Jason Ferguson have given the Quarter Back more options outside of CeeDee Lamb and Prescott will have enough time in the pocket if the team is in third and manageable spots to expose the Chiefs Secondary.
The expectation is that Dallas are going to be able to have enough Offensive success to put the pressure on a banged up Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to have to keep up on the scoreboard.
Where the Cowboys will still be confident they can have an impact with the running game, the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled to establish the run in recent games. Making it tougher is the clear improvements made by the Dallas Defensive Line after trades made and placing all of the burden on Patrick Mahomes and the passing game will feel like a big win for the Cowboys.
The Quarter Back is clearly not looking as comfortable as usual and that has meant he has been restricting his use of his legs, which has perhaps made it a little easier to face the Kansas City Chiefs. If Patrick Mahomes is not looking to put pressure on the Linebackers and Defensive Backs by pushing himself down the field, the Kansas City Offensive Line could be challenged by this Dallas pass rush when in the obvious passing situations.
Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Receivers are still very capable of linking up with the Quarter Back through the air, but any one-dimensional approach is something that NFL level Defensive units will be comfortable facing. The Quarter Back can still have success considering some of the issues that remain in the Dallas Secondary, but turnovers could be an issue and that will make it all the tougher for the Kansas City Chiefs to back up the Week 12 win with another.
Of course Kansas City can win, but they are 1-4 against the spread on the road and facing a Dallas team that have thrived when set as the underdog.
Taking the hook to cross over the key number 3 is going to be important for the Dallas Cowboys who can then cover even in a narrow defeat. However, this feels like a game where the Cowboys can produce enough Offensive output to perhaps earn the outright upset and to keep the Playoff hopes on track.
Prediction
Take the points with the home underdog.
The Pick :
Dallas Cowboys 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs
