Italian Serie A
2025-11-30 - Lecce vs Torino
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 13
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Sunday, 30 November 2025, 12:30 CET
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Lecce Team News
Lecce hasn't yet won at home, and scored only one goal in the last four rounds home and away, and that one goal was enough for a 0-1 win at Fiorentina.
This side, just barely in the relegation zone with 10 points, usually plays very low-scoring matches at home. There was only one exception to this rule, the 2-2 against Bologna.
If we'd exclude that game, the average total number of goals in Lecce's home games would be 1.20.
Torino Team News
If Lecce can't win at home, Torino can't win on the road. True, they earned a 0-1 win at Roma totally against the run of play, but that one was a real accident.
There is also a certain tendency to play low-scoring games on the road, with a few notable exceptions from time to time, as was the case with the 3-3 at Lazio.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha - Morente, Stulic, Sottil. Coach Di Francesco.
Torino (3-5-2): Paleari - Ismajli, Maripan, Coco - Pedersen, Casadei, Asslani, Vlasic, Lazaro - Adams, Ngonge. Coach Baroni.
The Betting Market
Torino is a slight favourite, deservedly so, with a price of 2.73. This means the value bet, Torino to win, is not something that we can consider as we expected the price to be above 3.00 to make it worthwhile. Then again, if you think Lecce can somehow win this, the price is 3.24.
It's a game of limbo between Serie A and the bookmakers as the oddsmakers keep lowering the bar for Under 2.5 Goals and the Italian teams keep beating it. The price on this one, as expected, is 1.44. The price on the unthinkable, Over 2.5 Goals, is 2.75.
The Betting Verdict
We can play limbo too. The Asian Handicap market is offering a goal line of 2.0, with a nice price of 1.82 on the Under. We only win if there are 0 or 1 goals in this game, with 2 we get our stake back, and with 3 we lose the bet. If we accept the 1.44 on Under 2.5 Goals as the fair price, then the 1.82 on Under 2.0 Goals seems a decent value bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lecce 0-1 Torino
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Under 2.0 Goals at 1.82 at Bet365
