Italian Serie A
2025-12-15 - AS Roma vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 15
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Monday, 15 December 2025, 20:45 CET
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Roma Team News
Roma lost at Cagliari in the previous Serie A round, as they got a red card while the score was 0-0 and then eventually conceded to lose the game, but then made up for it with a statement win at Glasgow against Celtic 0-3 in Europa League in midweek.
These two games continue an interesting trend where Roma either gets an uncontested win to nil, or loses in the same way. The previous Roma outing was a defeat to Napoli. It was 0-1, of course.
Roma also doesn't seem to draw -- the game either goes very well for them or it does not. Giancarlo Gasperini created this system that works like a charm compared to what was going on in previous seasons where Roma was completely unreliable, especially on the road.
This is now a solid team that is a true scudetto candidate, even if they're operating on very slim margins. This side got nine wins in fourteen rounds so far, with 1.07 goals scored per game, and a +7 goal difference. That's incredible.
Como Team News
Como, as we expected, lost cleanly to Inter Milan in the previous Serie A round as this side can't do much against a side that's really good.
They have their ways to get a victory against most sides in this league, and it usually involves deep defending, short passing and quality counter attacks. This is a side that's better suited for being the underdog than the favourite, though in a matchup against Inter it couldn't possibly work due to the gulf in quality.
Como will likely face a similar problem here, not to the same extent but this is a very similar challenge as the one in Milano a week ago. To add to that, Como is a one-trick pony that doesn't have a plan B, as Cesc Fabregas has a roster that can field one quality eleven in one specific way.
Probable Lineups
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Ghilardi, Hermoso, Mancini - Rensch, Cristante, Kone, Wesley - Pellegrini, Soule - Ferguson. Coach Gasperini.
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Posch, Carlos, Ramon, Valle - Da Cunha, Caqueret - Diao, Paz, Jesus Rodriguez - Douvikas. Coach Fabregas.
The Betting Market
Roma is given the price tag of 2.16 and that's a very tempting bet if you believe this will be a game in which Roma will be the side to have the upper hand. With Roma, it's either one way or the other.
Of course Roma is vulnerable to a 0-1 win by the underdog -- that's what happened when they faced Torino here and dominated the proceedings only to lose to a single shot towards the goal by the visitors.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.66. This price actually has value, as these are two low-scoring sides, both of which will attempt to win 1-0.
Both Teams To Score: NO has real value at 1.90, and it's incredible that the bookmakers have given this bet such a high price. Roma's matches have a 21% BTTS-Yes rate, while Como is at 43%, also a very low number for this league.
The Betting Verdict
Any of the bets mentioned above are good. Roma will likely win, the match will have less than three goals, and at least one side won't score.
We have a lot of confidence that Roma will win this, but as mentioned above, Roma is operating on slim margins and this is why they have a 4-0-3 record at home this season. If the opponent scores first then they turtle up and Roma can no longer break the defensive wall.
This is exactly the approach that Como will implement here. On the other hand, Roma will also aim to win this one-nil by not letting Como launch dangerous counter attacks.
Both Teams To Score: NO is the bet to make.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Roma 1-0 Como
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams To Score: NO at 1.90 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Monday night's Serie A fixture has AS Roma (4th) hosting little Como (6th) with both sides playing well enough to be worth a chance.
My spreadsheet has AS Roma with a significant advantage of 72 points (1098 vs 1026) and based on 55 previously similarly ranked games that means a 65% chance of a home victory.
Roma's home record is very hit and miss at 4-0-3 so far this season, but the recent losses were to Napoli and Inter Milan (both by 0-1 scores) and while Como have impressed, their recent 0-4 loss to Inter Milan in the San Siro is probably a key result comparision.
You can bet on AS Roma to win at 2.24 at CLoudbet which seems great value to me - officially 145% EV according to the sheet - and even if you think the home win is only 50% likely it's still very much a +EV bet.
Take Roma here.
My spreadsheet has AS Roma with a significant advantage of 72 points (1098 vs 1026) and based on 55 previously similarly ranked games that means a 65% chance of a home victory.
Roma's home record is very hit and miss at 4-0-3 so far this season, but the recent losses were to Napoli and Inter Milan (both by 0-1 scores) and while Como have impressed, their recent 0-4 loss to Inter Milan in the San Siro is probably a key result comparision.
You can bet on AS Roma to win at 2.24 at CLoudbet which seems great value to me - officially 145% EV according to the sheet - and even if you think the home win is only 50% likely it's still very much a +EV bet.
Take Roma here.
