German Bundesliga
2025-12-20 - RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Red Bull Arena – Leipzig
Saturday, 20th December 2025 - kickoff 18:30 CET
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig are enjoying a perfect start at home this season, winning all six Bundesliga matches in front of their fans. The only time they had 7 in a row at home was in their debut Bundesliga season, 2016/17, which should be enough motivation to repeat it.
Coach Ole Werner has instilled a high-pressing, attack-oriented style that has seen RB Leipzig score 18 goals in their last six home games.
RB Leipzig lost 3-1 to Union Berlin last week but stayed second in the table and remains nine points behind Bayern Munich.
Last week’s loss should definitely motivate them to finish their home run perfectly, with a final home win heading into the winter break.
RB Leipzig have a couple of players out, but their depth allows them to maintain a potent attacking threat, as it was the case in all their previous home matches.
Bayer Leverkusen
After losing two in a row, Bayer Leverkusen beat local rivals Koln 2-0 in their last Bundesliga game. That win keeps them firmly in the top-four picture, and a victory here would even see them move above RB Leipzig in the table.
However, they come into this fixture short-handed, with four important players away at the Africa Cup of Nations: Ibrahim Maza, Edmond Tapsoba, Christian Kofane and Eliesse Ben Seghir. How well they cope with those absences will likely decide how competitive they can be in Leipzig.
Bayer Leverkusen haven’t been that reliable on the road lately, losing two of their most recent three away matches in the Bundesliga.
The Betting Verdict
This match has all the ingredients of an open, entertaining game.
RB Leipzig’s perfect home record makes them hard to oppose, but Bayer Leverkusen’s attacking quality usually ensures they stay involved in big matches.
The most recent four head-to-head duels between these sides have produced a whopping 19 goals, and another lively game with plenty of goals looks likely, with RB Leipzig’s home strength giving them a slight edge.
Take the Overs in this game at fair odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Two good Bundesliga sides there as RB Leipzig (2nd) face Leverkusen (4th) in a match that would have title connotations if Bayern Munich were not already running away with the title.
RB Leipzig are very highly ranked when at home - rated 1146 pts by my sheet (only Bayern Munich are better) - a rating justified by 6 home wins on the bounce with five of them by a margin of two goals or more.
My sheet does NOT really help with a percentage estimate here as there has only been 9 games since 1998 in the Bundesliga between sides similarly rated which finished HW 5- Dr 3- AW 1, but the data is so slight that it's only a lean not solid percentages.
Still, RB Leipzig are flying at home, and 2.10 at Bet365 is a pretty good price for an obvious favourite so I'll take it.
RB Leipzig are very highly ranked when at home - rated 1146 pts by my sheet (only Bayern Munich are better) - a rating justified by 6 home wins on the bounce with five of them by a margin of two goals or more.
My sheet does NOT really help with a percentage estimate here as there has only been 9 games since 1998 in the Bundesliga between sides similarly rated which finished HW 5- Dr 3- AW 1, but the data is so slight that it's only a lean not solid percentages.
Still, RB Leipzig are flying at home, and 2.10 at Bet365 is a pretty good price for an obvious favourite so I'll take it.
