German Bundesliga
2026-01-17 - TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
PreZero Arena – Sinsheim
Saturday, 17th January 2026 - kickoff 15:30 CET
TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim have started the new year in excellent form, most recently demolishing Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-1 in midweek. That win was one of three victories in their last five Bundesliga matches and showed their attacking strength and defensive solidity on the day.
At home, TSG Hoffenheim are even more impressive. They are on a run of five straight league wins at the PreZero Arena, scoring three or more goals in each of those games. This confidence makes them a tough side to break down when playing in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen’s recent form has been mixed. They were beaten 1-4 at home by VfB Stuttgart in midweek, their third loss in five Bundesliga games. This has dropped them to sixth, just one point behind TSG Hoffenheim in fifth.
Despite that setback, Bayer Leverkusen have been strong on the road this season, winning four of their last six away matches in the Bundesliga.
Bayer Leverkusen have often bounced back after heavy defeats, making them a dangerous opponent in Sinsheim.
The Betting Verdict
This fixture has a strong history of goals. TSG Hoffenheim’s home games are high‑scoring, and Bayer Leverkusen have consistently found the net in their recent away clashes.
In fact, nine of their last meetings have seen over 2.5 goals, and Bayer Leverkusen have won the last four away matches against TSG Hoffenheim, scoring at least three in each.
Given TSG Hoffenheim’s home confidence and Leverkusen’s attacking ability, this looks like a match where both teams are likely to score, and there could be plenty of goals.
Backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is a sensible play, while Bayer Leverkusen could sneak the win based on recent head-to-head form.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.50 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
This looks a promising match and Hoffenheim's great recent home form with five wins in a row means that we can get very good odds on visiting Leverkusen who have won THIS fixture four times in a row.
Hoffenheim (5th) have 5-0-3 home form and a great recent run here albeit against a string of weaker sides and I have a felling that this is as good a it gets for The Hoff.
Bayer Leverkusen (6th) might be a point behind, but I am pretty sure that they'll finish the season ahead and probably in the top four again.
Leverkusen have won four of their last six road games, slipping at Bayern Munich as expected, and also 0-2 Augsburg which was not! Last time they beat RB Leipzig 3-1 in Leipzig - a very good result.
My stats have Leverkusen 74 points or 3/4 of a goal better here which translates to a 50% away win record over 78 previous games. So we are looking for odds of better then evens (2.00) and we can currently get 2.75+ as punters are probably distracted by Hoffenheim's recent home form.
You can get odds of 2.80 at Bet365, 2.81 at CLoudbet, and +179 at Bookmaker.EU which all seem to offer very good +EV of around 140%
Hoffenheim (5th) have 5-0-3 home form and a great recent run here albeit against a string of weaker sides and I have a felling that this is as good a it gets for The Hoff.
Bayer Leverkusen (6th) might be a point behind, but I am pretty sure that they'll finish the season ahead and probably in the top four again.
Leverkusen have won four of their last six road games, slipping at Bayern Munich as expected, and also 0-2 Augsburg which was not! Last time they beat RB Leipzig 3-1 in Leipzig - a very good result.
My stats have Leverkusen 74 points or 3/4 of a goal better here which translates to a 50% away win record over 78 previous games. So we are looking for odds of better then evens (2.00) and we can currently get 2.75+ as punters are probably distracted by Hoffenheim's recent home form.
You can get odds of 2.80 at Bet365, 2.81 at CLoudbet, and +179 at Bookmaker.EU which all seem to offer very good +EV of around 140%
