German Bundesliga
2026-01-17 - RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Red Bull Arena – Leipzig
Saturday, 17th January 2026 - kickoff 18:30 CET
RB Leipzig
After suffering back-to-back defeats, RB Leipzig bounced back with a 2-0 win over SC Freiburg in their last match.
The victory keeps them four points behind second-placed Borussia Dortmund, with a game in hand, meaning a strong result against Bayern Munich is crucial for their top-four ambitions.
RB Leipzig have been rock-solid at home, winning seven of their eight matches at the Red Bull Arena this season, with their only home defeat coming against Bayer Leverkusen. Their attacking output has been strong, but they will need to be wary of Bayern Munich’s firepower.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich are in their usual dominant form, having scored at least twice in each of their last 25 Bundesliga games. They most recently dispatched Koln 1-3 away, continuing a run of matches where over 2.5 goals have been scored in 18 consecutive Bundesliga games.
Defensively, Bayern Munich have a few concerns. Josip Stanisic is out for a month, and Konrad Laimer will miss the trip to his former club after a calf strain in the midweek game. Despite that, the Bavarians remain the clear force in the Bundesliga.
The Betting Verdict
Bayern Munich have dominated this fixture, winning 13 of 23 Bundesliga meetings, including emphatic 6-0 and 5-1 victories in two of the last three duels.
RB Leipzig have shown they can be tricky opponents, though, holding Bayern Munich to a 3-3 draw last season and remaining unbeaten in four games against them in 2023.
We should expect a high-scoring, end-to-end clash, with Bayern Munich likely winning but RB Leipzig capable of finding the net.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayern Munich
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Bayern Munich to win at odds of 1.55 with Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
My stats can't give a good numerical prediction for this game as RB Leipzig (1136 rated) and 7-0-1 21:6 at home face runaway leaders Bayern Munich (1193 rated) and 7-1-0 27:6 when travelling.
The two sides are so highly ranked that we could only find 7 occasions in the previous 25 years of Bundesliga football where similar sides clashed and those games finished 0-3-4 with the higher rated visitors clearly holding an edge and proving the ratings worth.
So clearly Bayern Munich are favoured, it didn't take a spreadsheet to tell you that, but the 1.55 to 1.60 price just doesn't appeal even if Bayern Munich are 15-2-0 overall this season.
Looking at previous seasons this fixture has gone 0-4-2 in the last six, and the last three occasions have finished all square (1-1, 2-2, 3-3) ... so maybe that's a possible option?
Maybe ... but Leipzig did lose the reverse fixture 0-6 in Munich last August ... so just be aware of the risk involved in betting against Bayern Munich.
The DRAW pays 4.75 at Bet365, 4.85 at CLoudbet and +400 (5.00) at Bookmaker.EU for us wild value hunters - keep stakes small though !
The two sides are so highly ranked that we could only find 7 occasions in the previous 25 years of Bundesliga football where similar sides clashed and those games finished 0-3-4 with the higher rated visitors clearly holding an edge and proving the ratings worth.
So clearly Bayern Munich are favoured, it didn't take a spreadsheet to tell you that, but the 1.55 to 1.60 price just doesn't appeal even if Bayern Munich are 15-2-0 overall this season.
Looking at previous seasons this fixture has gone 0-4-2 in the last six, and the last three occasions have finished all square (1-1, 2-2, 3-3) ... so maybe that's a possible option?
Maybe ... but Leipzig did lose the reverse fixture 0-6 in Munich last August ... so just be aware of the risk involved in betting against Bayern Munich.
The DRAW pays 4.75 at Bet365, 4.85 at CLoudbet and +400 (5.00) at Bookmaker.EU for us wild value hunters - keep stakes small though !
