English Premier
2026-02-28 - Newcastle United vs Everton
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 28th February 2026 - Kick Off 3pm
Newcastle United
After a big performance out in Azerbaijan that effectively ended the Champions League Knock Out Play Off Round tie at the end of the First Leg, no one should criticise Eddie Howe for giving some of his key players a rest in the Second Leg. Two early goals suggested Newcastle United might end up with another big win over Qarabag, but the fringe players did secure the 3-2 success and keeps some momentum behind the team.
The Cup competitions look like being the only route to real success, but Newcastle United are also keen to make sure they earn a return to any European competition through the final Premier League finish. After losing at the Etihad Stadium last Saturday, Newcastle United are 11th in the Premier League table and will not want to see the 4 point gap to Brentford in 7th extended much further.
Newcastle United have been managing a very busy schedule having made progress in the Champions League and FA Cup and already reaching the League Cup Semi Final, but they have momentum with 4 wins from the last 5 games played. They have enjoyed some Cup successes at home in recent weeks, but The Magpies have lost the last 2 Premier League games at St James' Park against Aston Villa and Brentford.
Both Tino Livramento and Lewis Miley could be back next week when Newcastle United host Manchester United, but they look doubtful for Saturday. Eddie Howe will be restoring the likes of Nick Pope, Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon to the starting eleven.
Everton
Everything was pretty positive for Everton in the early fixtures played at Hill Dickinson Stadium, but Monday night's defeat to Manchester United was the latest setback in their new home. David Moyes will be looking for a reaction from his players and knows he needs to oversee a strong, consistent finish if Everton are going to earn a spot in Europe for next season.
This has been the ambition laid out by the manager, and Everton are 9th in the Premier League table and just 3 points behind 7th placed Brentford despite the loss most recently. It is the solid 6-3-4 away record that has been key for Everton and only three top flight clubs have earned more away points than The Toffees through to this stage of the campaign.
Everton had been unbeaten in 6 games in all competitions in normal time, but have now suffered consecutive Premier League defeats and both at home. There has to be plenty of respect for Everton on their travels considering they have been beaten in just 1 of the last 9 away Premier League games played, while winning 3 of the last 4.
Jake O'Brien is available after serving a suspension, but Jack Grealish is out.
Head to Head
It was 0-3 at half time as Newcastle United cruised to a 1-4 win at Hill Dickinson Stadium in November.
Newcastle United had beaten Everton 3 times in a row at home, but have been held 1-1 and lost 0-1 in the last two when hosting.
Prediction
It has been a strange season for Everton and it could yet go in two directions- they could finish strongly and likely have European Football at Hill Dickinson Stadium next season, or finish poorly with the team sliding into the bottom half of the standings.
They have been a little Jekyll and Hyde depending on where they have bene playing.
Everton have struggled for home form, but the side have lost 1 of the last 9 away Premier League games and have earned wins 5 times in that run, including in 3 of the last 4 on their travels.
It should be said that they have not always been the most convincing with the likes of Aston Villa and Fulham feeling like they missed opportunities in home defeats to Everton.
However, you cannot ignore the fact that David Moyes has led the team to those successes and he will want his Everton team to try and build the pressure on Newcastle United, who will be carrying bigger expectations when playing in front of the home supporters.
Eddie Howe has been able to get some rest into his key performers in the Champions League Knock Out Play Off Second Leg, which will help. Newcastle United completed the comfortable progress past Qarabag on Tuesday and the team should be fired up and ready to go as they look to move closer to the European spots in the Premier League, even if the Cup competitions feel like the priority.
The last couple of times they have hosted Everton have led to Newcastle United setbacks, while they have lost 2 in a row at St James' Park in the top flight.
It does mean there has to be some concern for the home team, but the focus has to be on making a fast start and showing better composure than some recent Everton opponents have been able to display.
Since losing 2-3 to Brentford, Newcastle United have found some decent form and that could see them have a bit too much for the visitors.
Everton are almost certainly going to offer a threat and play their part, but Newcastle United can do enough going forward to earn the three points this weekend.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle United 2-1 Everton
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Newcastle United to Win & Over 1 Total Goals (Bet Builder) at 1.95 with Bet365 (early payout if a team is leading by two goals)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Newcastle's overall recent form looks OK if you count FA Cup games, and Qarabag in the Champions League but if you drop those games out then Newcastle are 1-0-4 in their last five league games only beating Tottenham ... and who hasn't done that ... ;-)
The Geordies are OK at home, but their 7-2-4 home record is only 11th best in the competition and they've lost their last two league games here at St James's Park to Aston Villa and Brentford.
Everton are a tight mean side when playing on the road, with a 6-3-4 13:12 record - those 12 goals conceded being the BEST defensive record in the Premier League this season.
Recent away form shows three wins in the last four games conceding just two goals, as I say it's an impressive little run and somehow EVERTON are paying 4.75+ for the away win here.
Given all that, betting on a Newcastle win is poor value, and I'm not convinced about the draw - because if Everton get in front then I think that they've got the defensive nous to hold on.
Take EVERTON to WIN at Bet365 at odds of 4.50 - it's a contrarian value though - and the prices keep rising so you might even get odds of 5.00 on Saturday morning.
The Geordies are OK at home, but their 7-2-4 home record is only 11th best in the competition and they've lost their last two league games here at St James's Park to Aston Villa and Brentford.
Everton are a tight mean side when playing on the road, with a 6-3-4 13:12 record - those 12 goals conceded being the BEST defensive record in the Premier League this season.
Recent away form shows three wins in the last four games conceding just two goals, as I say it's an impressive little run and somehow EVERTON are paying 4.75+ for the away win here.
Given all that, betting on a Newcastle win is poor value, and I'm not convinced about the draw - because if Everton get in front then I think that they've got the defensive nous to hold on.
Take EVERTON to WIN at Bet365 at odds of 4.50 - it's a contrarian value though - and the prices keep rising so you might even get odds of 5.00 on Saturday morning.
