Italian Serie A
2026-03-01 - Cremonese vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 27
Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona, Lombardy, Italy (20,641)
Sunday, 01 March 2026, 12:30 CET
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Cremonese Team News
Are we in the month of March already? Incredible. Hands up if you were on autopilot since the New Year - and are now shocked to see one sixth of 2026 already done and over.
That being said, Cremonese is on autopilot since early December as this side is winless for twelve straight Serie A rounds now. With 1 goal scored in their last seven outings. What a disaster for a team that hit the ground running better than anyone else who came from Serie B in the recent decade or so.
Whatever worked in the beginning no longer works, and Cremonese now has to reinvent itself to prevent an otherwise certain drift into the relegation zone. Cremonese is on 24 points, same as Lecce and Fiorentina. Basically, it's a battle between Cremonese and Lecce to stay up, as Fiorentina will do fine, and Pisa and Verona are all but relegated at 15 points.
If you remember, Cremonese is the only team that defeated AC Milan this season - at least until Parma repeated the feat last week - with an opening-day 1-2 win at San Siro.
AC Milan Team News
Milan had a certain chance to fight for the scudetto at the turn of 2026, and they certainly had a new year's resolution to make a push for it. They won on January 2nd against Cagliari but followed that with two 1-1 draws, against Genoa and Fiorentina, to make scudetto dreams vanish.
On February 13th, Luka Modric did his magic to win the Pisa match for Milan, and everyone thought this must be it, Milan is back in the game, but then Milan played only 1-1 at home against Como and, shockingly, lost 0-1 at home to Parma when this writer had a massive bet on Milan to score. Jinxed it, sorry lads.
Anyway, what matters here is that Milan is finally a stable side that almost never loses, but it's impossible to catch Inter the flat track bully that beats just about everyone. Milan doesn't have the tools to compete, and this is particularly noticeable when they play smaller sides that defend deep. This has been their Achilles heel this season.
AC Milan will usually concede at least once regardless of how poor the opponent is, simply because they defend too high and because their defenders are soft like it's womens football we're talking about here.
All you need to do is just run straight into the box and shoot. Tomori and Gabbia certainly won't push you too hard so if you have the technique, you'll be able to score easily against this Milan. Just reach the box, force yourself in, shoot.
Probable Lineups
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Luperto, Bianchetti - Barbieri, Payero, Thorsby, Maleh, Pezzella - Vardy, Djuric. Coach Nicola.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi - Pulisic, Leao. Coach Allegri.
The main defender Baschirotto (that muscular guy with the hair band) is out for Cremonese, and Vardy will likely be on the bench as he hasn't done much for the team lately.
The Betting Market
The price on Milan is laughable at 1.46, as if this side wins easily. No, they never do. It's always a struggle to either get the opening goal or, more often than not, to score the second goal because they happened to concede one. This isn't Inter.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals is split at 1.90, and it actually makes sense to go for the Under as the most likely outcome here is 1-1 or 0-1, and Both Teams To Score: NO is the favoured option with a price of 1.70.
The Betting Verdict
If the bookmakers have reduced the price on Milan too much, and if Milan almost never wins by a handicap, then the value is on Cremonese AH+1.50. We win if Cremonese doesn't lose by two goals or more.
Sure, Milan is actually performing a bit better on the road than at home in situations such as these, against minnows, but we still only see them struggle in every single game. This game will be a struggle, too.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cremonese 1-2 Milan
