Champions League
2026-03-10 - Galatasaray vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 First Leg
Tuesday 10th March 2026 - Kick Off 5:45pm
This game is live on TV
Galatasaray
The three time defending Turkish Champions are 4 points clear in their bid to secure the title yet again, but the Galatasaray attention will turn to the Champions League this midweek. Prior to the change in format to what was formerly known as the European Cup, Galatasaray did have successes in the competition, but they have not reached the Quarter Final of the premier European competition since 2013.
In more recent times merely making the Group Stage would have been seen as a success, but the Knock Out Play Off tie win over Juventus will have given Galatasaray fans a real belief that they can make a serious impact in the Champions League this season. The 5-2 home win in the First Leg was the key and Galatasaray will be hosting the First Leg of this Last 16 tie knowing they have been beaten in 1 of the 5 games played here in the Champions League and won 3 of those matches.
Galatasaray have won 3 in a row in all competitions since the Second Leg of that Knock Out Play Off tie in Turin when they were pushed into Extra Time before scoring twice to move through 7-5 on aggregate. The side are unbeaten in 7 at home in all competitions and Galatasaray have won 5 in succession here.
There is plenty of Premier League experience in the Galatasaray squad, which should help in terms of preparation and what to expect from this tie.
Liverpool
The underlying numbers from the two trips to Molineux were almost identical, but Liverpool's inconsistencies this season are highlighted by the fact they were beaten in one of those visits and won comfortably in the other. Manager Arne Slot was frustrated with another goal given away, despite largely containing Wolves, and Liverpool are going to need to improve that if they are going to win a seventh European title.
Twelve months ago Liverpool were 'awarded' a tie against Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16, despite finishing top of the League Phase, so this will feel like a much more manageable tie. However, The Reds have been placed in the 'difficult half' of the Champions League bracket, although the 3-0-1 away record in the League Phase will certainly have Liverpool fans believing anything is possible.
Liverpool have won 8 of the last 11 games in all competitions, although the exceptions have all been defeats in that run of fixtures. In recent weeks they have just shown some battling qualities by winning 4 of the last 6 away games in all competitions and Liverpool have kept clean sheets in half of those games played.
The likes of Jeremie Frimpong, Ibrahima Konate and Hugo Ekitike were rested on Friday in the FA Cup Fifth Round win at Wolves. All should be restored to the side, but Andy Robertson may have shown enough to retain his place at left back having scored and assisted in that last win.
Head to Head
These teams met earlier in the League Phase of the competition and an early Penalty was enough for Galatasaray to beat Liverpool 1-0 at home.
This is now the fourth visit Liverpool have made to Istanbul to face Galatasaray and they have drawn the first before losing the last two.
Prediction
When looking back at the previous fixture between Galatasaray and Liverpool, you have to feel that the visiting team were a little unfortunate to have to travel back with a defeat on the board.
Both teams had the same number of Big Chances, but Liverpool created enough opportunities to have deserved to avoid defeat.
Three points in a long Group run is obviously a very different situation than when playing Knock Out ties and that has to be considered.
However, it is likely that both teams are going to have chances in this one with the onus being on Galatasaray to have some kind of lead to take to Anfield next week. They have not been the best travellers in European Football and so there is some pressure on the Turkish Champions to play with an attacking mindset.
It may actually suit Liverpool who do have some real quality in the final third and the balance that Galatasaray need to find is going to be a challenge.
Of course they can take confidence from the fact they just beat Juventus 5-2 here last month and have already beaten Liverpool once at home. A draw with Atletico Madrid and a win over Bodo/Glimt shows the potential that Galatasaray have, but this current Liverpool team are not giving away a lot of chances.
Arne Slot has been frustrated that his team are going through a period where even limited openings are being punished, but his will note that his team have clean sheets in half of the last 6 away games played in all competitions.
There will also be a lot of respect for the Liverpool name and that has perhaps made things a little more comfortable in European settings rather than domestically.
Liverpool have found a way to win 3 of the 4 away games played in the Champions League and they have only conceded twice in those matches. Unlike Galatasaray, Liverpool are likely to be very comfortable if they avoid defeat here and the early plan may be to quiet the crowd and not allow the home team to build up ahead of steam.
The layers are anticipating a lot of goals- Liverpool have given away some cheap goals of late, but are creating some decent openings the other way.
However, the First Leg of this Last 16 tie is one that the English Premier league club are unlikely to want to be extremely open. Instead Liverpool may choose to do enough to avoid a defeat and bring the game back to Anfield where they should have a significant edge.
Covering a number of final scores, backing at fewer than four goals to be shared out looks to be the right play here at a slightly shorter price than backing a Liverpool win.
Respect has to be given to the fact that Galatasaray have been scoring goals for fun in front of the home fans, but that has not been the case as much in the Champions League.
When they get going they can be tough to stop, but Liverpool are experienced enough to try and cool things down as early as they can and goals may not be as free-flowing as the layers believe.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Galatasaray 1-1 Liverpool
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Under 3.5 Goals at 1.66 with Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Galatasaray’s 5–2 home win over Juventus in the previous knockout round was one of the big shocks of the competition. Add in their 1–0 group-stage win over Liverpool and the idea of another underdog success — at least in the home leg — doesn’t seem quite so far-fetched.
Liverpool, however, are masters of European Cup ties. They’ve won four of their last five away games in the competition, including victories over PSG and Inter Milan. Having slipped up in Istanbul earlier in the tournament, they’ll be well aware of the problems that come with playing in the Turkish arena.
The market is heavily weighted toward Liverpool at around 1.75, implying roughly a 57% win probability. That feels a touch high to me — but at the same time I’m not particularly tempted by the 4.10–4.20 being offered on Galatasaray either.
This one looks tight and tense. Liverpool would be perfectly happy to grind out a 0–0 and take the tie back to Anfield all square. The key question is whether Galatasaray can find a breakthrough.
Likely result: DRAW 0–0
Prices of 4.00+ on the draw look worth a small punt.
Liverpool, however, are masters of European Cup ties. They’ve won four of their last five away games in the competition, including victories over PSG and Inter Milan. Having slipped up in Istanbul earlier in the tournament, they’ll be well aware of the problems that come with playing in the Turkish arena.
The market is heavily weighted toward Liverpool at around 1.75, implying roughly a 57% win probability. That feels a touch high to me — but at the same time I’m not particularly tempted by the 4.10–4.20 being offered on Galatasaray either.
This one looks tight and tense. Liverpool would be perfectly happy to grind out a 0–0 and take the tie back to Anfield all square. The key question is whether Galatasaray can find a breakthrough.
Likely result: DRAW 0–0
Prices of 4.00+ on the draw look worth a small punt.
