World Cup
2026-03-26 - Italy vs Northern Ireland
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA World Cup Qualifier
Thursday 26th March 2026 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Italy
A four time World Champion, the Italian national football team had never missed consecutive World Cup Finals and only missed out on one tournament from 1934 until 2014. That sequence ended with the Italians failing to Qualify for the 2018 World Cup Finals hosted in Russia and then failing to do the same for the 2022 World Cup Finals in Qatar. Italy may have won a continental title in between those World Cup failures, but the decline of the national team is summed up by the fact they are in danger of missing out on a third straight World Cup Finals.
They finished behind Norway in Qualifying, which means having to go through the Play Off path, but Italy won't be approaching this period with a lot of confidence having been undone by Sweden in the 2018 Play Off and North Macedonia in the 2022 Play Off. Since last winning the World Cup in 2006, Italy have not been beyond the Group Stage on this stage, which is nothing short of embarrassing for this nation.
Italy lost both World Cup Qualifiers against Norway, but they did win the other 6 played, while they remain in League A of the Nations League after reaching the Quarter Final of that competition. The first Play Off game has given Italy a chance to host, but they have won 4 and lost 3 of the last 7 home competitive fixtures played.
Sandro Tonali is a doubt having missed the last Newcastle United fixture, while Federico Chiesa has left the squad.
Northern Ireland
They may not have the same international pedigree as Italy, but that does not mean Northern Ireland are going to want to roll over and miss the opportunity to reach a second major international tournament Finals since the 1986 World Cup. That other appearance came a decade ago in the Euro 2016 Finals hosted in France, but all of the squad and the supporters will be joined together looking for a big trip to North America in three months time.
The World Cup Qualifying draw looked a tough one on paper and no one will be surprised that Northern Ireland finished behind Germany, although they may have hoped to edge out Slovakia for second place. That may have improved Seeding, but Northern Ireland have earned a second chance at joining the big summer party after winning the Nations League Group eighteen months ago.
Northern Ireland were able to beat Luxembourg twice and Slovakia at home in the World Cup Qualifying Group, but they lost the other 3 games played in that section to finish third. Defeats in Germany and Slovakia means Northern Ireland have won 1 of the last 9 away games in all competitions and they have suffered losses in 4 of the last 5.
Dan Ballard joined Sandro Tonali on the sidelines for the Tyne-Wear derby last Sunday and is expected to miss out. Both Conor Bradley and Jamal Lewis were ruled out a while ago.
Head to Head
These two nations faced one another in the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers having been placed in the same Group.
Italy took four points from Northern Ireland in that section and the majority of those points were earned in a 2-0 home win.
They have now hosted Northern Ireland 7 times and Italy have won all of those previous matches.
Prediction
There is a huge amount of pressure being carried by this Italian squad and no one will dare think about missing out on the World Cup Finals for a third tournament in a row.
Outside of the unexpected Euro 2020 success and a couple of decent runs in the Nations League, Italy have struggled on a national level.
The four time World Cup Champions have not made the Knock Out Stage of that tournament since winning it all in 2006, while Italy were comfortably beaten in the Euro 2024 Second Round having only just gotten out of the Group Stage.
They were thumped in both World Cup Qualifiers by Norway, which underlines the fall from grace, but Italy did win the other 6 Qualifiers played and against teams more of the level they will face in this first of potentially two Play Off fixtures.
Credit has to be given to Northern Ireland for topping a Nations League Group and earning this second chance, but this is not a great travelling team.
Northern Ireland would have felt like a real upset could be earned if they were hosting, but the side have lost 4 of the last 5 away games played. They created little in defeats in Germany and Slovakia and Italy will take some belief out of the fact they were able to beat Israel, Estonia and Moldova at home without conceding a goal.
However, pressure can do a funny thing and not many Italians will have forgotten losing at home to North Macedonia in the 2022 World Cup Play Off.
Gennaro Gattuso will want his team to start off quickly and try and get in front, which will shift all of that pressure from the shoulders- the longer it is goalless will make it tougher and tougher for Italy and they dare not fall behind in this one.
Northern Ireland are likely going to set up to be hard to beat and see if something can break their way from a set piece, but Italy may still have just enough to edge through to the next Round and move one game away from a return to the World Cup stage.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland
