Rugby League
2026-05-22 - Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 22nd May 2026 - KO 2000 AEST
Canterbury Bulldogs
The Bulldogs return to Accor Stadium on Friday night for one of the strangest games of the season, with both clubs heavily reshaped by State of Origin I selections. Canterbury only lose captain Stephen Crichton to the Blues and have a prime opportunity to turn their season around facing Melbourne without their stars and in a run of poor form too.
Canterbury are 14th winning just 3 matches from their 1 attempts and have looked terrible on attack, this match presents a huge chance to get their season back on track.
For the Bulldogs, the timing of Jacob Kiraz’s return could not be better. The powerful winger has missed the past month with a knee injury, and Canterbury have badly lacked his energy, metres and physicality coming out of trouble.
His inclusion allows Enari Tuala to cover Crichton’s absence, while Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin now carry the responsibility of steering the attack.
Melbourne Storm
Melbourne have been hit even harder with Origin selection, missing Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Trent Loiero for Queensland duty. This places enormous pressure on the Storm, placed 13th on a 4-7 record, a loss or 2 during the origin weeks could may well end their seasons hopes of a finals berth.
Melbourne’s changes are even more dramatic. Without Munster and Grant, the Storm suddenly look far less dangerous around the middle of the field. Jahrome Hughes becomes the clear focal point of everything they do in attack, while young five-eighth Keagan Russell-Smith comes in for only his second NRL appearance. Trent Toelau starts at hooker, and Gabriel Satrick is set to make his NRL debut from the bench.
Odds
Bulldogs will start as slight favourites, $1.67 to $2.25, the line is 2.5 points and combined points 47.5
The Betting Verdict
Max King, Leo Thompson and Jacob Preston give the Bulldogs plenty of aggression through the pack, and Canterbury’s defensive structure still remains one of the tougher systems to break down despite their recent slide in form.
Melbourne still have quality with Stefano Utoikamanu, Josh King and Shawn Blore, but without Grant’s creativity from dummy-half, their attack may become far more predictable.
The Bulldogs have now lost five straight matches and their attack has looked increasingly clunky, averaging just 14 points per game during that stretch. The pressure is mounting quickly on Cameron Ciraldo’s side, especially against a Storm team that has quietly won two in a row after their own difficult period earlier in the season.
The Bulldogs look slightly better equipped to handle the Origin disruption, particularly with Kiraz returning at the perfect time and Melbourne losing both Munster and Grant together.
If Canterbury can finally rediscover some attacking rhythm, this shapes as their best chance in weeks to snap the losing streak and maybe make a run to the finals but a lot has to improve for that to happen.
Overall H2H is 22-26 with Melbourne winning the past 3 matches, all at home. Canterbury are a respectable 54% at home while Melbourne are 20-12 at Accor Stadium.
Melbourne’s form has not been as bad as the dogs but neither deserve to make the finals based on recent form. When a match like this falls in an origin period you can read a lot less into previous results and more about desire to win.
Canterbury are at home and being far less affected should win this tie and really if they don’t, the season is gone.
The Pick :
Canterbury Bulldogs 24-16 Melbourne Storm
