Rugby League
2026-06-17 - New South Wales vs Queensland
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : State of Origin 2 2026
Wednesday 17th June 2026 - KO 1935 AEST
New South Wales
Game One was a classic Origin arm wrestle. NSW escaped with a narrow victory after overcoming a substantial deficit, showing remarkable discipline and composure in the second half. The Blues conceded just one six-again call across the entire match, highlighting the control and patience that coach Laurie Daley has demanded from his side.
The Blues have had a messy build up with the expected return of Mitchell Moses now not happening with injury keeping Moses from taking the field alongside Nathan Cleary in the halves. This brings probably the Blues best player from game one Ethan Strange back in to start game two, his running threat add another dimension to an already dangerous spine, while the return of Payne Haas significantly strengthens the middle rotation.
Sadly, Casey Mclean who made a massive difference in game one, has failed his fitness test too, this brings Koula into the centres and Nawaqanitwase onto the wing, his aerial game will certainly be a weapon on attack.
One player who could prove decisive is Cleary. His ability to control territory remains unmatched in rugby league. Few players can dictate a game's tempo through kicking as effectively, and in Origin football where field position is everything, that skill becomes even more valuable. If NSW establish early territorial dominance, Cleary is often the architect.
Another key figure is Haas. When fully fit, he is arguably the most dominant front-rower in the game. His ability to generate post-contact metres and consistently win the ruck battle allows NSW's playmakers to attack on the front foot. Queensland struggled at times to contain NSW's middle rotation in Game One, and Haas inclusion only increases that challenge.
Queensland Maroons
Queensland have made several changes following their heartbreaking Game One defeat. The return of Reece Walsh provides additional attacking spark, while coach Billy Slater has reshuffled his squad in an effort to inject more creativity and unpredictability. It is unclear how Walsh will be utilised but he will create chances when he gets his opportunity.
The Maroons biggest strength remains their ability to thrive when under pressure. Origin history is littered with Queensland teams written off before producing their best football. They will enter Melbourne believing one victory changes the entire complexion of the series.
Much of that belief centres around captain Cameron Munster. There is no player in rugby league more dangerous when a game becomes chaotic. Munster thrives when defensive structures begin to break down, and his ability to create opportunities through instinct rather than structure makes him incredibly difficult to defend in Origin football.
The emotional focus, however, may fall on Tino Fa'asuamaleaui. Following the tragic passing of his father earlier this week, Tino has indicated his desire to play for Queensland. Already one of the competition's premier middle forwards, his ability to inspire teammates through physicality and effort could become a major factor in the contest.
Queensland's challenge remains discipline and execution. Their Game One performance featured periods of dominance but they were unable to maintain control when momentum shifted. Against a disciplined NSW side, they simply cannot afford the same lapses.
Odds
Current Bet365 markets have New South Wales as favourites, Blues $1.87 Maroons $1.95, the line NSW -2.5 and total combined points 42.5
The Betting Verdict
The State of Origin series shifts to the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground on Wednesday night with the New South Wales Blues holding a 1-0 series lead and standing just 80 minutes away from reclaiming the shield. Queensland, meanwhile, arrive facing a familiar Origin scenario: backs against the wall, doubted by many, and needing a response to keep the series alive.
Queensland will undoubtedly bring greater desperation. Lose and the series is over. Win and they force a decider in Brisbane. Expect the Maroons to start aggressively, particularly through their middle forwards. Queensland will compete fiercely, as they always do, but with the return of Haas, NSW look slightly better balanced across the park and possess more proven game-management options when the pressure rises. Munster, Walker, Grant and Ponga will start as the spine and the wild card is Reece Walsh – it is a daunting prospect for the Blues.
Overall H2H is still in favour of Queensland, 62-2-72 but the biggest story here is the MCG ground stats, with NSW winning 6 from 7 at this venue which present an enormous opportunity to claim the series before the tough trip to Suncorp.
The Blues forward rotation is deeper, their kicking game is stronger, and their discipline in Game One was outstanding, however, their errors were shocking and their start HAS to be much better. With Koroisau on the bench and Haas returning I feel this is a much better Blues team for game 2 and with the MCG ground stats on their side, their should be enough firepower to claim the series here.
The Blues appear to hold advantages in the middle, in the kicking game, however, without that crucial send off, I doubt the Blues win game one. If Queensland reproduce the strong first half showing from game one, they could square the series and a decider at Suncorp for game 3.
Origin football rarely produces blowouts, and this feels destined to be another bruising battle decided in the final quarter. Prediction -
NSW Blues to win by 4 in a physical, high-intensity contest with a fun high priced bet on first try scorer - Hudson Young at $15.00
The Pick :
NSW 20-14 QLD
