Rugby League
2026-10-24 - Papua New Guinea vs Samoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : World cup 2026
Saturday 24th October 2026 - KO 1725 AEST
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea have home advantage and there will be plenty of pride ion display as they run out in Port Moresby.
PNG made an encouraging start to their campaign with a 42–18 victory over Lebanon, demonstrating the attacking potential to trouble Samoa. Captain Rhyse Martin will be important for his leadership and goal-kicking, while hooker Edwin Ipape can inject speed and unpredictability around the ruck. Jack de Belin's inclusion in the starting side should also strengthen their defensive organisation and middle-third work.
Playing in Port Moresby is a major advantage. The atmosphere can lift the Kumuls considerably, and they will need to use that energy to start strongly, maintain discipline and avoid giving Samoa easy field position. Their challenge is sustaining that intensity against a side with considerably more NRL experience across its starting lineup.
Samoa
Samoa were emphatic in their opening match, absolutely crushing France 78–4. Jarome Luai leads a dangerous backline that includes Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Brian To'o, Stephen Crichton and Izack Tago. That combination brings speed, strength and the ability to score from limited opportunities.
Their forward pack is equally impressive, with Junior Paulo, Spencer Leniu and Francis Molo providing plenty of power. If Samoa dominate the middle, Luai and five-eighth Chanel Harris-Tavita should have the platform to unleash their outside backs. Sua Fa'alogo also comes into the starting side after scoring four tries against France, adding another dangerous attacking option.
Samoa will be expected to win, but playing PNG in Port Moresby is a very different proposition from facing France in the comfort of Australia. They must remain patient and avoid allowing the home crowd to turn the match into an emotional, momentum-driven contest.
Odds
The visiting Cowboys will start as slight favourites, $1.05 to $9.50, the line is 30.5 points
The Betting Verdict
Papua New Guinea face a major challenge when they take on Samoa in front of their passionate home supporters in Port Moresby. The Kumuls will have the crowd firmly behind them, but Samoa arrive with a squad stacked with NRL talent and ambitions of making a deep run at the World Cup. This shapes as a very tribal contest between PNG's home-ground energy and Samoa's individual class.
One of the key battles will be the contest around the ruck. Dummy half, Ipape gives PNG the ability to speed up play, but Samoa have the forward strength to slow the game down and impose their physicality. If Luai receives quick play-the-balls and good field position, Samoa's backline could prove difficult to contain.
If Samoa get momentum, the scoreboard could get ugly fast for PNG. Samoa have an electric backline and are capable of scoring long range tries too, aside from the result/handicaps in betting options try scorers like Tabuai-Fidow, Fa’alogo and To’o could all be on the try scorers list at the end of this match and demand a serious consideration in a multi bet.
PNG need to keep the scoreboard close for as long as possible and make the most of their home advantage. If Samoa establish an early lead, their attacking depth could make it a long afternoon for the Kumuls.
The senior international record favours Samoa, winning all three previous meetings by an aggregate score of 88–28.
2009 Samoa 26–18 PNG
2013 Samoa 38–4 PNG
2019 Samoa 24–6 PNG
As you would expect, the market strongly favours Samoa, with a substantial gap between the teams in the head-to-head prices. PNG are around the $10.00 mark and Samoa $1.05, with Samoa -30.5 points at $1.91
Samoa have the stronger squad and arrive in excellent attacking form, but the short head-to-head price offers little value. The handicap is more interesting, although PNG's home advantage makes a margin of more than 30 points a demanding expectation.
Best bet here for me is PNG +30.5 points @ $1.91 Samoa should win, but I expect the home side to compete with enough pride and energy to keep the margin below the market's 30.5-point line.
Samoa have too much firepower across the park, but the Kumuls home advantage should help them remain competitive. I expect a comfortable Samoan victory rather than a complete blowout.
The Pick :
Papua New Guinea 14 v Samoa 34
