Rugby League
2026-11-07 - New Zealand vs Tonga
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : World Cup 2026
Saturday 7th November 2026 - KO 2005 AEST
New Zealand
New Zealand have looked increasingly dangerous as the tournament has progressed. After a narrow 24–22 opening defeat to Australia – a match NZ probably should have won, the Kiwis responded with an 82–16 demolition of the Cook Islands before producing a remarkable 78–0 victory over Fiji. Those performances have underlined just how much attacking potential Stacey Jones has at his disposal.
Jahrome Hughes is central to everything New Zealand do. His ability to control the game, identify defensive weaknesses and bring runners onto the ball gives the Kiwis a genuine attacking edge. Kodi Nikorima provides another creative option, while Jeremy Marshall-King can create havoc around the ruck. There is also an incredible possibility that Ponga makes his return after breaking his arm in the Australia match
The forward pack is equally impressive. Captain James Fisher-Harris, Joseph Tapine and Moses Leota provide enormous strength and aggression, with Isaiah Papali'i and Briton Nikora adding mobility and work rate. If New Zealand can establish dominance through the middle against a very strong Tongan forward pack, Hughes will have plenty of opportunities to exploit Tonga's defensive line.
The Kiwis have suffered a significant setback. Winger Ronaldo Mulitalo is suspended following his sending-off against Fiji. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has been named to replace him on the wing.
Tonga
Tonga have arguably been the tournament's most impressive story. They opened with a commanding 30-12 victory over England, which effectively cost England a semi-final berth. Followed it with a 36-0 shutout of Lebanon and then produced a gutsy 20-18 win over Samoa to secure their semi-final place.
Their strength lies in a formidable forward pack. Addin Fonua-Blake and Jason Taumalolo bring size, power and experience, while the likes of Junior Paulo and Spencer Leniu give Tonga the ability to match New Zealand physically. They are capable of making serious metres and forcing opposition defences to work extremely hard.
The key man, though, is halfback Isaiya Katoa. His composure and kicking game have been vital to Tonga's success, and his combination with Tui Lolohea gives them two genuine playmaking threats. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Robert Toia and the outside backs provide plenty of finishing ability.
Tonga's victory over Samoa was particularly impressive because they had to withstand sustained pressure before Fonua-Blake scored the decisive try late in the match. That sort of resilience will be essential against New Zealand. They have conceded only 30 points across three matches, making their defensive record one of the best in this competition.
Odds
New Zealand are favourites, $1.45 to $2.90, the line is 6.5 points and combined points 40.5
The Betting Verdict
This shapes as one of the most compelling matches of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup. New Zealand and Tonga meet with a place in the World Cup final on the line, and there is plenty of history, pride and a lot of unfinished business between these two sides.
The Kiwis will rightly start as favourites after producing two enormous wins in their last two pool matches, but Tonga arrive unbeaten and full of confidence after eliminating Samoa in a thrilling encounter. New Zealand have the greater attacking depth, but Tonga have shown they can match the best teams physically and defend under pressure. This is far from a straightforward assignment for the Kiwis.
One of the most important contests will be New Zealand's forward pack against Tonga's enormous middle. Fisher-Harris, Tapine and Leota will look to generate quick play-the-balls and put Tonga on the back foot. Fonua-Blake and Taumalolo will have other ideas. If Tonga can match New Zealand through the middle, they will give Katoa and Lolohea the platform to create opportunities and that could decide the outcome.
The other fascinating match-up is Jahrome Hughes v Isaiya Katoa. Hughes has been outstanding in New Zealand's attacking resurgence, but Katoa has shown maturity beyond his years. Both are capable of controlling the tempo and producing the decisive moment and both are capable of taking their side all the way and lifting the cup.
The loss of Mulitalo is also important. He is a powerful winger who offers New Zealand plenty of finishing ability, and his absence puts extra responsibility on the reshuffled outside backs.
H2H record - New Zealand have won seven of the nine previous Test meetings, with Tonga winning twice. However, Tonga have won two of the last five encounters, including their famous 28-22 victory at the 2017 World Cup and a thrilling 25-24 win in the 2024 Pacific Championships.
The most recent meeting went New Zealand's way, with the Kiwis winning 40–14 in November 2025. History favours New Zealand, but Tonga have demonstrated that they are more than capable of beating them.
New Zealand deserve favouritism based on their tournament form and the quality of their attacking options. Their performances against the Cook Islands and Fiji were outstanding, and they have scored 182 points across their three matches.
However, I am not convinced this will be a comfortable victory. Tonga's defensive record has been excellent, and their forwards are capable of slowing New Zealand's momentum. They also have the confidence that comes from beating England and Samoa, two quality opponents.
I expect Tonga to make this a very physical contest and remain within striking distance for much of the match. Ultimately, I think New Zealand's superior attacking variety and Hughes ability to control the game will prove decisive.
Suggested option - Tonga with a generous points start, my preferred value angle. Despite predicting a New Zealand win here, I expect Tonga to be competitive. A handicap is around +10.5 or higher, it would be worth considering. Bookies have +6.5 at time of writing. The other option I like is Under the total points Tonga's defensive performances suggest this could be a more controlled and physical match than New Zealand's recent big wins might indicate.
Ultimately, New Zealand to reach the World Cup final, but Tonga will make them work extremely hard for it. I expect a tough, physical semi-final with the Kiwis pulling away late in the second half.
The Pick :
New Zealand 20–12 Tonga
