NFL Football
2010-10-24 - Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 7
Sunday 24 October 2010 - Kickoff 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
They may have lost last Sunday at New England, but the Baltimore Ravens are comfortable and confident with the start they have made this season. That defeat last week is put into context when considering it was already their 3rd tough road test of the season, with Baltimore inflicting the only losses on the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Baltimore moved down into 2nd spot in the AFC North after results last weekend. They would have been in an imperious position if they had not thrown away a 10 point lead in the 4th Quarter against the Patriots and would have controlled the AFC Conference but they are not too disheartened. The visit of Buffalo could not really come at a better time for the Ravens.
The Ravens have a balanced Offense this season and Anquan Boldin has fit in seamlessly. The Defense remains the frightening prospect it has been and there is the possibility that Saftey Ed Reed will return this weekend. However, the Ravens may hold him off until after their bye.
Last week was the first time a team had scored more than 17 points against the Ravens this season, who continue to restrict teams. The Offense is putting up points though, scoring 20 or more points in 3 of the last 4 weeks after only scoring 20 points in the first 2 weeks of the season.
Buffalo Bills (0-5)
The Buffalo Bills essentially gave up on the Play Offs this season when they felt it was right to trade Marshawn Lynch and it is clear this team is in pole position to grab the Number 1 Draft Pick next April. It is hard to see how this team will get a win when the Offense struggles to score while the Defense leaks more than a drainpipe.
The Bills are off to their worst start in 25 years and used the bye week last weekend to change their Defensive system from a 3-4 to a 4-3 to plug up some holes in the rushing Defense. Buffalo have given up 689 yards on the ground over the last 3 games and now face Ray Rice.
Even with the changes made in the Offense, with Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Trent Edwards at QB and Lynch being moved on, they do score points. Fitzpatrick has 7 TD passes to 2 Interceptions since coming into the team in Week 3 and is 4th in the QB Rating system.
The problem is definitely with the Defense at the moment which has allowed 34 points or more in each of their last 4 games- not many teams can win with that happening, even if Peyton Manning was QB.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting between the sides since 2007 and on that occasion it was the Bills who won 19-14 in Buffalo.
Baltimore have won the last 2 times they have hosted Buffalo, but the last meeting was in 2006.
Buffalo will hope to improve their recent record against the spread, going 5-13 against teams with winning records. They are 1-4 against the spread this season.
Baltimore on the other hand are 11-3 against the spread when playing teams with losing records and they are 2-2-1 this season against the spread.
Prediction
This is a tough ask for Buffalo to change their Defensive system and come against a team that can both beat you through the air and on the ground. It will also be hard for Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep up in a shootout as the Ravens still have a strong Defense.
The area where Ed Reed will really help the Ravens is in terms of takeaways and they definitely want to create more turnovers, a trademark of the Ravens through the years.
I cant look beyond the home win here, but the odds reflect that. I also think this game could get away from the Bills, even off a bye week, and I dont see how their Offense keeps up with Baltimore here.
I'll take the Ravens minus the points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 34-13 Buffalo Bills
