Spanish La Liga
2010-12-12 - Real Zaragoza vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
It's a Battle Real at the Romerada on Sunday NightReal Zaragoza
19th Place
Home Record W1 D2 L4 GF9 GA16
New Zaragoza coach Javier Aguirre has a hell of a job on his hands as once again Zaragoza face a relegation dog fight in the Primera Liga. El Bascos side have won just once all season.
Aguirre was quite fortunate to come in when Zaragoza had just completed a run of fixtures against the divisions leading lights, but that three game period of easier games ended with just 2 points from 6 and they now face Madrid. Aguirre can only hope to escape this period with pride intact, with easier games to come in the new year.
The problem as ever is Zaragoza's meek defence. With the amount of goals they have conceded this year you have to think they will let in 1 or 2 against Madrid, and you cant see them scoring that many themselves. They have a really poor record against Madrid at home, having beaten them only once in the last 13 league attempts (in 2001).
So even though Madrid will be priced far too short for this matchup, there is no sensible justification for backing Zaragoza to get any sort of result. It's really just a case of how many will Madrid will win by. Zaragoza will be trying to keep it respectable.
Real Madrid
2nd Place
Away Record W4 D2 L1 GF10 GA8
Humiliated in El Clasico, Real Madrid looked distinctly humbled as they toiled past Valencia last weekend. They looked a little more comfortable easing past Auxerre in Europe in midweek, although I suspect this had a lot to do with Benzema fancying his chances against a team he knows how to score against.
Against La Liga opposition, even inferior opposition like Zaragoza, Benzema is at times frustratingly catatonic and does not hold the same threat as his team mates.
What Real Madrid are not doing is thumping anyone. As discussed in last weeks Valencia preview, Madrid do not have the same cutting edge with Higuain missing, and to add injury to injury Ronaldo is playing with a problem.
Team News
Madrid winger Angel Di Maria returned to training on Friday. Madrids injury list is expected to comprise Dudek, Khedira, Canales, Higuain, Gago and Kaka.
The Betting Verdict :
So Madrid should win, but the prices of 1/3 on for an away side with questions about their strike force are not easy to swallow.
Instead of taking that price, it may pay to stick with the strategy that gave us an odds against winner last weekend, and go for Real Madrid to win by 1 or 2 goals.
Away from home this is never a bad bet as teams dont feel under the same pressure to keep attacking. Madrid and Barca are a bit of a special case in that regard, but at the end of the day this a Mourinho side, with fitness and availability problems up front. And looking at the head to heads, Madrid usually beat Zaragoza but its usually only by 1 or 2 goals.
Madrid could win by a hatful, especially if Ronaldo has fully recovered from his knock, but most of the time most teams win by the simplest of scorelines. By dutching 1 and 2 goal winning margins at eurobet and bet365 at 3.75 and 4 respectively you are getting odds of 1.94.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Zaragoza 0 Madrid 2
BEST BETTING TIP :
Dutch two bets together (half stake each) :Real Madrid to win by 1 goal at 3.75 (eurobet)
Real Madrid to win by 2 goals at 4 (bet365)
