Dutch EreDivision
2010-10-02 - Excelsior Rotterdam vs Roda JC Kerkrade
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Football : Netherlands : Eredivisie
Saturday, 2nd October 2010 - Kickoff 20:45
Excelsior Rotterdam
Excelsior Rotterdam had a surprising start of the season, but have collapsed a bit already. The last two matches were lost, after an unbeaten streak of four matches. More worrying is the fact they couldn't score in their last two outings, and their defensive game was not solid enough to stay out of trouble.
With a game mainly based on a defensive game, Excelsior have already conceded 13 goals this season. Last week Vitesse won at Excelsior, and it was a deserved win. Now a same sort of opponent will bring a visit, if not a better one.
The biggest problem at the moment is the suspension of striker Guyon Fernandez. He has proved to be the most worthwile player so far, with his speed he can lead the counter attacks, starting from their own half till the opponent's goal. He is fast and can keep two or more defenders busy, which reults in space for the other players. He is still absent and this means their game has to be adjusted.
His replacement Bergkamp (no - not Dennis coming out of retirement) is another type of striker, and as he is less mobile, he needs to be in the opponent's box, which is hard as Excelsior do not have the quality of pressuring the opponent back on their own half.
Roda JC Kerkrade
Roda JC Kerkrade is another team that has performed very well, with a current 5th place on the table. Roda is unbeaten since the away loss against Ajax, 5 matches ago.
Last week Roda JC fought back from a 2-0 deficit to a 2-2 draw, and before that they knocked out Feyenoord in the cup after penalties, away from home. Obviously they are a capable away team, with a 2-1-1 record in the Eredivisie. They are a balanced team, and are playing with players that have failed on higher platforms and are showing they can play as collective.
Midfielder Delorge is suspended after a double booking against Heerenveen, and he is an important motor on midfield. But I think he can be replaced better than the suspension at Excelsior side, and even though Delorge is important, this should not be the decisive factor in this match.
As long as Roda play their usual game, they should be more than capable of shutting out Excelsior, and create enough to have a chance on a win.
The Betting Verdict
Excelsior are slowly falling back and it seems they have lost the momentum they had in their first couple of matches. Fernandez is still out which is a problem, especially against a good defending team as Roda is.
Roda are on a fifth place and their game is perfectly suited for this match, as they are stronger physically, and will be in better shape starting this match.
In current form I see Roda keeping a clean sheet and scoring 1 or 2 themself, which means a victory should be taken. Roda JC to win are odds of 2.20, but I'm going for a bit more safety and will take Roda -0.25 AH.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Roda JC Kerkrade on the -0.25 asian handicap which will retrun back half your stake in the event of a draw.
