Copa America 2011
2011-07-09 - Brazil vs Paraguay
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Copa America 2011
Saturday 9 July 2011 - Kickoff 4pm (Local Time)
This game is live on TV
Preview
Group B is wide open with 2 games left to play for each of the teams after both of the intial matches in the group finished 0-0. Paraguay will feel they are in the better position than Brazil as they finish with a match against Venezuala, while Brazil are due to meet Ecuador.
This is not going to be an easy match for Brazil as can be seen from the odds being quote on the Samba Boys picking up the win. They looked a little short of creativity in their first match with Venezuala and were guilty of poor finishing when chances were presented to them.
The likes of Alexander Pato and Neymar represent the future for the World Cup hosts of 2014, yet both missed chances they would be expected to put away, especially more so considering the prices being suggested to purchase either player.
The Group Stages of the Copa America make it almost impossible for the big boys to miss out on a place in the Quarter Finals, but Brazil cannot afford to lose this game and have the pressure of needing to win their final game to ensure they progress.
The pressure has been increased by the sheer fact that Argentina and Uruguay are struggling in their respective groups, and may make the '2 best third place finishers' have higher points than usual.
Paraguay, on the other hand, are also in the same boat as Brazil in that they cannot really afford to lose after only picking up a point against Ecuador. Much of their success is based on a solid defence that has kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 games, although they did concede 4 times to Argentina in the exception.
They do have the likes of Roque Santa Cruz up front and the manager has suggested that he will look to take the game to Brazil. It is unlikely that Paraguay will make any changes from the team that drew the opening game of the competition.
Head to Head
These two nations have met 9 times since the turn of the new century, and surprisingly both teams have won 4 of those games.
Their last meetings came in the World Cup Qualifying campaign from 2 years ago and each team won their home game.
Brazil beat Paraguay 2-1 at home, while the scoreline was 2-0 to Paraguay in the previous fixture.
Prediction
It has been a largely disappointing tournament so far, but I am not sure if that is because of the weather, the pitches, or the fact that the group stage is mainly irrelevant with 8 teams from 12 going through to the next round.
This game is more important than most as the loser will be in a very difficult position to qualify from the group, most likely needing a win to do so depending if the other game has a winner too.
Paraguay are not afraid of Brazil as they have so many recent wins over them, while they defend very well and could make life particularly difficult for the Brazilian players.
The lack of goals the team concedes is very eye-catching, and that makes the Paraguay + 1 on the Asian Handicap look a favourable option from this game.
It does look like it could be another tight game and I would be surprised if Paraguay were to concede more than 1 goal.
That could lead to another surprise draw, but instead I will focus on the Asian Handicap for my pick.
The Pick :
Brazil 1-1 Paraguay
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Paraguay + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 (Pinnacle)
