NBA Basketball
2012-01-11 - LA Lakers at Utah Jazz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Wednesday 11 January 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Utah Jazz (6-3) remained unbeaten at home and in 2012 when holding off the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, but there were plenty of things to work on before they face the hot LA Lakers (7-4).
The first of those is the number of fouls the team gave away- Utah allowed Cleveland to get to the free throw line on over 40 occasions last night and that is something they need to avoid tonight. Both Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors fouled out during the game with Cleveland, and it would have been a much easier night for the Jazz if they had not kept allowing the Cavaliers free shots.
Utah have won all 5 home games this season, but the team are not going overboard with their start as they began last season with a 15-5 record only to fail to make the Play Offs. They also face one of the toughest tests at home when they face the Lakers, a team who have won 3 straight.
It is quite surprising that the Lakers are only 0-3 on the road so far this season, but they are beginning to come together as a team, winning their last 3 games without letting a team score more than 90 points. Kobe Bryant was in great form last night as he put up 48 points on the Phoenix Suns and this does not bode well for Utah.
Bryant has averaged just under 30 points per game in his last 4 games against the Jazz, but he is now hoping to bring his form from the Staples Center on the road. The Lakers are averaging 4 points less per contest on the road this season than they are at home, while also 6% less from the field.
Head to Head
The LA Lakers are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series between these two teams.
They are also 3-1, both straight up and against the spread, in games played in Salt Lake City.
Utah are 5-4 against the spread this season, the Lakers are 6-5.
Utah are 3-3 against the spread when they are set as the underdog, LA are 5-3 as the favourite.
Other Interesting Trends
Utah are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are just 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games following a straight up win.
LA are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, they have lost their last 5 games against the spread on the road.
Prediction
I am going to back the LA Lakers to win their first road game of the season and cover the spread in the process for the following reasons:
First, the Lakers have a very good record against Utah overall as well as here in Utah.
Second, Utah do not play enough defense for me to think they can cope with the Lakers at this moment in time.
Third, Utah have played well, but have had a weak schedule. They have lost to San Antonio, Denver and the Lakers on the road already and I still think they are not quite up to the best teams in the Western Conference.
The Pick :
Utah Jazz 91-95 LA Lakers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the LA Lakers - 2 Points @ 2.00