NBA Basketball
2012-05-12 - Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Saturday 12 May 2012 - Tip Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It is surprising that this game has gone to the full seven games, especially considering the LA Lakers were leading the series 3-1 when they met at Staples Center earlier this season. However, since game 2, the Denver Nuggets have really dominated most aspects and that has seen them pull level and now have the chance to complete the surprise comeback.
The Nuggets completely dominated game 6 back at the Pepsi Center as the Lakers completely lost their way in the altitude of Colorado. Kobe Bryant had been suffering from an illness, but still managed to score 31 points and he was very critical of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum as both seemed to sleep-walk through the contest, having little impact in proceedings.
Bryant made it clear that he is looking forward to having Metta World Peace, and the energy and motivation he brings to the court, back for this critical game 7. He also said he would be having a talk with Bynum and Gasol before this game to get them focused on what is going on and the importance of this series.
Denver have made full use of their speed and aggressive tactics in winning the last two games of the series. They will look to continue that kind of game plan to try and cause the biggest surprise of the First Round of the Play Offs. The Nuggets made over 50% of their shots from the field and continued their forward march with 10 three pointers, while also grabbing more boards than their bigger rivals.
World Peace will definitely help the Lakers with their defensive schemes, but they need to get more out of their bigs if they don't want to fall out at this stage, something that will lead to roster changes in the off-season as well as making Mike Brown's future as Head Coach under threat.
Head to Head
The LA Lakers are now 6-4 in the season series against Denver, but 3 losses in the last 4 games has left them in this tough spot.
The Lakers are 4-1 at home in the series this season, but they lost their last game at the Staples Center and they are actually trailing 2-3 against the spread.
Denver are actually 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 8 games at the Staples Center against the Lakers.
Other Interesting Trends
The LA Lakers are just 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They have also dropped to 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games on 1 days rest.
Denver are 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I have to take the Denver Nuggets with the points tonight to at least cover in game 7 for the following reasons:
First, Denver have figured out a game plan that has been incredibly effective in the last four games for them and you have to imagine they will continue with those as the Lakers cannot do much to stop them.
Second, Denver have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games in this series, including twice in this Arena and one of those was in a losing effort.
Third, the Lakers have really struggled as a home favourite all season, while Denver are 10-2 against the spread when considered the road underdog of between 3.5 and 6 points.
Fourth, the Lakers have struggled in revenge spots all season, going 8-15 against the spread in this spot all season.
The Pick :
LA Lakers 106-103 Denver Nuggets
