Euro 2012
2012-06-16 - Greece vs Russia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group A
Saturday 16 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
Greece paid for a poor start in their last game of the group stage and they are now in a very precarious position where they need to win their game against Russia if they want to get through to the last eight. However, the Russians have looked like a decent team in their opening two games and know avoiding defeat will allow them to progress while a win would see them top the group and likely avoid Germany in the Quarter Finals.
It has been a poor start to both matches that has left the Greeks in this position. They found themselves 1-0 down to Poland after just 17 minutes of the first game and could have been out of the game by half-time if Poland had taken their chances, but Greece recovered to take a point. They also missed a second half penalty in that game and that has also put them in this unfortunate position.
If the first game saw Greece make a bad start, the second game was horrendous as they found themselves 2-0 down to the Czech Republic after just six minutes of the game. The team took a battering in that game for the first twenty minutes before settling down, although they could not salvage a point in that game despite pulling a goal back with over 35 minutes left to play.
Russia, on the other hand, have made a decent start to both their matches and have picked up four points to top the table and leave their destiny in their own hands. They destroyed the Czech Republic in their first game 4-1, although they couldn't hang on to a 1-0 half time lead over Poland in their second game and had to settle for a point.
Dick Advocaat has not been that impressed with his side so far in the tournament, despite the praise they have been getting from other people, and he was upset with aspects of their performances in both games. However, the Dutchman has made it clear that he still has faith in his striker Aleksandr Kerzakhov despite the calls for him to change his front man after Kerzakhov's disappointing ten shots off target in the first two games.
Greece will have Sokratis Papastathopolous back at the heart of their defence and other changes have been considered after a couple of games where they have given up far too many chances for the opposition.
There were some rumours that Russia will make wholesale changes to their side with a draw being enough to progress, but that is hard to believe as a loss could see them knocked out of the competition if there is a winner in the game between Poland and the Czech Republic.
Head to Head
These two nations last met in November 2011 in a friendly game that finished 1-1 in Greece.
Interestingly, this will be the third straight European Championships that the nations have been placed in the same group. Russia beat Greece in both 2004 and 2008 and will be looking for a hat-trick tonight.
Outside of those two matches at major tournaments, Greece and Russia have drawn 4 games in a row.
Prediction
I don't believe Russia will rest too many players as they still need a point to secure their place in the last eight and I think there is a big motivation in securing top spot in the group as they will get to avoid Germany and could set up a potential Quarter Final with Denmark if results go the right way tomorrow.
However, I still think they are a little short and instead I am going to focus on the Greece concentration letting them down early in the game and back Russia to be leading by half time going on to win the game.
Russia have been leading at half time in both of their previous matches while the Greeks have been behind at half time in their previous two matches so there is every chance this can come in. Greece have made poor starts and Russia can punish them with their attacking talent and they will be set up to counter the Greeks in the second half if they are pushing for the goals that could see them through.
It is also interesting to note that Russia have been leading at half time in their last three games with Greece, including when they have met at the 2004 and 2008 European Championships.
Taking Russia to be winning at half time and going on to win the game is offered at 2.75 at Paddy Power and that could be considered here. However, I am going to take a bit of a riskier proposition and back Russia to win both halves at 5.00.
As I said, I expect Russia to have the lead at half time, and I think they have the counter attack ability to pick off the Greeks in the second half as the latter will have to commit men forward else they will be knocked out of the competition.
As long as Russia make the right decisions in the final third, I think they will have opportunities to score goals in the second half and they may just make a mockery of the 5.00 in that case.
The Pick :
Greece 0-2 Russia
