Tennis
2025-11-07 - Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: WTA Finals Semi Final
Friday 7th November 2025 - Scheduled 6pm
3pm (British Time)
Preview
The World Number 5 would have gone into her final Group match knowing a win would put her in a good position to reach the Semi Final here in Riyadh. However, Jessica Pegula may also have put herself under some pressure to win in straight sets to take away any drama while watching the other match and credit has to be given to the American for the strong win she put together.
Moving through to the WTA Finals last four as Runner Up means a Semi Final clash against Elena Rybakina who has looked like the player that won the title at Wimbledon back in 2022.
Six months later she reached the Australian Open Final, but you would perhaps be a little disappointed in not seeing Elena Rybakina compete at the business end of more Grand Slams since winning Wimbledon. Most would have anticipated her adding to that title, but she has failed to make the Quarter Final in any of the last five Grand Slams played and some of that has been down to off court issues.
Those look to be clearing up, even if some remain concerned about Rybakina's relationship with Coach Stefano Vukov.
The World Number 6 enjoyed a decent Asian swing to earn her spot in the WTA Finals and Elena Rybakina has won all three Group matches thanks to her immense serving.
Elena Rybakina has won at least 70% of service points played in each of the three matches here in Riyadh and that has put a lot of scoreboard pressure on her opponents. She has only dropped serve twice, which is no surprise considering how dominant Rybakina has been behind her opening delivery, and that has allowed the World Number 6 to play with some aggression on the return.
It is going to be challenging for Jessica Pegula to find her way into the return games, although she will take some heart from the way she returned against Aryna Sabalenka in the Group Stage. She managed to break serve four times against the World Number 1, although Jessica Pegula was kept under immense pressure on her own serve and that is expected to be the case here.
These two players met after the US Open in the Billy Jean King Cup and Elena Rybakina was the much stronger server in a straight sets win over Jessica Pegula.
The last time they met at the WTA Finals was at the end of the 2022 season and it was Pegula who got the better of that one, but you have to give Elena Rybakina the edge on the form produced this week.
Jessica Pegula controlled the match against Jasmine Paolini, but has won less than 60% of service points played against Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka and the likely service disparity between these two Semi Finalists is going to give the lower Ranked player the edge.
Prediction
Lay the games with the favourite in this Semi Final.
The Pick :
Elena Rybakina 2-0 Jessica Pegula
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games at 1.80 with Bet365
