WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - SPAIN V PORTUGAL

World Cup

2010-06-29 - Spain vs Portugal

A Sports Betting Pick by Shady

Spain Vs Portugal
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Second Round
Tuesday, 29th June 2010 - Kickoff 8:30pm local

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Spain :

Spain were slow starters to the 2010 World Cup Finals as the Spaniards lost to Switzerland in the opening game due to a rather lacklustre performance. However things improved as they went on to beat the Honduras and Chile in the following games and see Del Bosque’s side top the group and avoid playing Brazil in the round of 16.

Even with one of the world’s best keepers in between the post, Spain have let in a couple of soft goals. In the past 30 years, Spain have only managed to keep 9 clean sheets from a possible 34 World Cup games. With an approximate 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Portugal will definitely fancy their chances to score.

The midfield combination of Xavi, Iniesta, Xabi Alonso and Busquet is one of the best midfield combinations you can get. They are all good passes of the ball and their ability to play a through ball in between defenders will cause some trouble to this Portuguese defense.

Fernando Torres is still a little short of match sharpness. His ball control and finishing is a little below average and this might prove costly to the Spanish sides should one golden opportunity fall to him and he squander it.

David Villa on the other hand is in good form. His execution has been superb, more noticeably his goal against Chile. From 35 yards out shooting with your weaker foot and yet accurately on target is no easy task but yet Villa made it look so easy.

Portugal :

Carlos Queiros should count himself lucky for being in the round of last 16. If it wasn't for Portugal's 7-0 demolition of North Korea, we might have seen Ivory Coast in the last 16 instead of the Portuguese.

In midfield, Raul Meireless have been impressive in this World Cup as his late runs has cause problems for defenders. However the partnership between Meireless, Tiago and Pedro Mendes might be a liability for the team as Mendes is way past his peak while Tiago is also a little past his best.

It took Tiago more than 3 years to score his first league goal in January when he was loaned out to Atletico Madrid. This gives us an idea how Tiago struggled in recent seasons. No doubt Tiago had his good times with Chelsea and Lyon but that was some four seasons ago.

Cristiano Ronaldo will be key in this Portuguese team as he has single handily turn things round for his team. However this statement applies only at club level. At international level, Ronaldo seems to be a slightly different player then he is at Manchester or Real Madrid.

I would not blame him for this but the quality in the United or Madrid team cannot be compared to the Portuguese national team. So it will be interesting to see what can he do against Ramos, Pique, Puyol and Capdevila who have are all aware of this threat.

Head To Head :

Spain has had the upper hand against its fellow neighbours. Portugal only managed to win 5 of their previous 32 games against Spain in all competition. However in their last competitive game in Euro 2004, Portugal secured a 1-0 win.

Probable Line-ups :

Likely Spain Team :
Casilas, Ramos, Pique, Puyol, Capdevila, Busquest, Alonso, Xavi, Iniesta, Torres and David Villa

Likely Portugal Team :
Eduardo, Pepe, Carvalho, Bruno Alves, Coentrao, Mendes, Tiago, Raul Meireles, Simao, Ronaldo and Leidson or Danny.

The Betting Verdict :

Compared to the two Spanish strikers, David Villa is potentially more dangerous given the form Villa is in and Carlos Queiroz will definitely ask his defenders to focus on Villa. However this might potentially give chance Torres to take advantage of this and get his first World Cup goal of 2010.

Despite scoring 7 goals against North Korea, Portugal were unable to score any goals in their other two games. The goals might have given people false impression that the Portuguese side can score freely but if you watch the game closely, Portugal did not create much against the stronger teams of Ivory Coast or Brazil.

Spain has been less than convincing in the group games but with the handicap placed only at -0.25, I have to say my money is on Spain. Spain looked less than convincing because of the high standards they’ve set but the honest truth is at this level, it’s not easy to play at that level on every game.

This game might end up in extra time but I definitely can't see the Portuguese side winning in 90 minutes unless Ronaldo were to step up and score a couple of goals.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Spain to win at a decent value @ 2.10 and above

Consider trying Spain to keep a clean sheet despite Spain’s poor record at the World Cup keeping clean sheets.