Rugby
2011-09-24 - New Zealand vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Pool A
Saturday, 24th September 2011 - Kickoff 8:30pm (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: New Zealand 1st, France 5th
Many in the media have written this game off as a strategic withdrawal on the part of the French - especially having seen the "experimental" team lineup.
Coming runner-up in Pool A rather than top of Pool A means the team would be thrown into a "Northern Hemisphere" bracket that includes England in a quarterfinal and maybe Wales or Ireland in a semi which seems an easier task than facing South Africa or Australia in a semi-final - which is the challenge for the Pool winner.
France will worry the All Blacks because despite knowing that New Zealand are the better team, when the French are virtually impossible to contain when they play with freedom and fearlessness – especially for a team hoping to play an exciting brand of rugby all of their own.
In spite of having Marc Lievremont at the helm, France are still capable of fielding an immensely talented team. The French unpredictability has ambushed the All Blacks in the past and the memories of 2007 haven’t gone away.
The All Blacks
The All Blacks want to win this match. As you've probably heard ad nauseum this game will be Richie McCaw's 100th test for the All Blacks (the 1st AB in history to achieve this!) and the ABs will be hoping for something of an exhibition game.
Team and Tactics
Coach Graham Henry has named what most have described as the strongest possible All Blacks XV. Whether this is to acknowledge the threat the French team presents - or give the top side a solid run - or just as host nation to give ticket holders value for money, I'm not sure.
There are four changes to the All Black side that beat Japan 83-7 in Hamilton last weekend.
Starting New Zealand Team Lineup :
Tony Woodcock 1, Keven Mealamu 2, Owen Franks 3, Brad Thorn 4, Sam Whitelock 5, Jerome Kaino 6, Richie McCaw 7, Adam Thomson 8, Piri Weepu 9, Daniel Carter 10, Richard Kahui 11, Ma'a Nonu 12, Conrad Smith 13, Cory Jane 14, Israel Dagg 15,
Replacements :
Andrew Hore 16, Ben Franks 17, Ali Williams 18, Anthony Boric 19, Andy Ellis 20, Colin Slade 21, Sonny Bill Williams 22
Les Bleus
The Blues come from a very proud Rugby nation who love representing their country and love playing the All Blacks. They're going to come out very fired up.
Team and Tactics
France has 642 caps in their starting XV, so despite the talk of "second string" it looks like a very strong side to me. They're a big, physical, mature pack, and France have got some outstanding backs. Their reputation as "Famously flamboyant but inconsistent" will worry the All Blacks.
The All Blacks have been struggling to analyse France through the Six Nations and pre-World Cup games. The 47-21 scoreline over Japan and France's tough 46-19 victory over Canada on Sunday have not added anything new in terms of analysing the French rugby style.
Starting France Team Lineup :
1 Jean-Baptiste Poux, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 3 Luc Ducalcon, 4 Pascal Pape, 5 Lionel Nallet, 6 Thierry Dusautoir, 7 Julien Bonnaire, 8 Louis Picamoles, 9 Dimitri Yachvili, 10 Morgan Parra, 11 Maxime Médard, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 14 Vincent Clerc, 15 Damien Traille,
Replacements : 16 William Servat, 17 Fabien Barcella, 18 Julien Pierre, 19 Imanol Harinordoquy, 20 Francois Trinh-Duc, 21 Fabrice Estebanez, 22 Cédric Heymans
Other Variables
Referee: Alain Rolland (IRE)
A Northern hemisphere ref may better suit France.
The Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
A sell out crowd, mainly wearing Black, will just further psyche up the Les Bleus.
The Weather:
They're expecting the odd shower with Northwest winds. Perhaps a slippery ball, especially in the first half.
The Verdict
I think the game will be far from one-sided, but still expect to see a sizable AB win.
I think that the All Blacks will play for 80 minutes in this match and will pull away in the second half and win by around 25 points.
I'm picking a scoreline something like All Blacks 38 - France 13.
The Pick :
All Blacks 38 - France 13
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Ladbrokes have 1.10 available on a straight All Black win. I suspect this price won't last long.
