Rugby
2011-10-16 - Australia vs New Zealand
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Semi Final 2
Sunday, 16th October 2011 - Kickoff 21:00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: Australia 2nd, New Zealand 1st
The Wallabies haven't won at Eden Park since 1986 but come into the semifinal having won their last game against the All Blacks in the Tri-Nations finale at Brisbane seven weeks ago.
I'm surprised at all the hype coming from the Australian camp about the All Blacks bottling it under the weight of national expectation to win as hosts. It tells of a complete mis-reading of the demands and expectations of the All Blacks whenever they play.
Frankly, New Zealand are EXPECTED to win EVERY game by their home public ALL THE TIME. Pressure on New Zealand is nothing new - and at least at this RWC, despite injuries, New Zealand have a deep squad of in-form players.
(Think of the Australian cricket team or Brazil's football team - yes there is pressure and expectation - but the players involved are improved by it and would have it no other way).
The two sides have meet twice in World Cup semifinals, with Australia winning both those knockout matches in 1991 and 2003 - mind you Australia were favoured in both games at the bookmakers.
The Wallabies
Australia 2011 Rugby World Cup Results :
11/09 Australia 32 - 6 Italy
17/09 Australia 6 - 15 Ireland
23/09 Australia 67 - 5 USA
01/10 Australia 68 - 22 Russia
09/10 Australia 11-9 South Africa
The Australia forwards will need to improve significantly on their performance from last Sunday (against South Africa) if the side is to overcome the All Blacks.
Australia have played well enough when they get forward dominance - running up big scores against USA, Russia and Italy, but the Aussies have looked less impressive when matched up front as both Ireland and South Africa have shown.
In a week that has seen Australian players talking a storm - despite not having won in New Zealand for over 10 years (12 straight losses) - I'm hoping that the Wallabies have more than just media psych hype in their kitbag.
They'll need it.
Australia Team and Tactics
Starting Australia Rugby Team Lineup:
Sekope Kepu 1, Stephen Moore 2, Ben Alexander 3, Dan Vickerman 4, James Horwill (captain) 5, Rocky Elsom 6, David Pocock 7, Radike Samo 8, Will Genia 9, Quade Cooper 10, Digby Ioane 11, Pat McCabe 12, Adam Ashley-Cooper 13, James O'Connor 14, Kurtley Beale 15
Reserves:Tatafu Polota-Nau 16, James Slipper 17, Rob Simmons 18, Ben McCalman 19, Luke Burgess 20, Berrick Barnes 21, Anthony Faingaa 22
Key team issues:
Beale has been bracketed with Adam Ashley-Cooper (due to Beale's hamstring injury), with Anthony Faingaa in reserve to come on as wing. Lock Nathan Sharpe isn't even on the bench and so won't get to play his 100th test.
Quade Cooper’s less than impressive quarter-final showing against South Africa hopefully won't lull the ABs into a sense of false security - Cooper has demonstrated flashes of attacking brilliance throughout RWC 2011.
If the Aussies protect Cooper with another play maker (like Berrick Barnes) Cooper may prove dangerous, but at this stage Barnes is not in the starting lineup.
The All Blacks
New Zealand 2011 Rugby World Cup Results :
10/09 New Zealand 41 - 10 Tonga
16/09 New Zealand 83 - 7 Japan
24/09 New Zealand 37 - 17 France
02/10 New Zealand 79 - 15 Canada
09/10 New Zealand 33 - 10 Argentina
New Zealand have pretty much played as expected so far, with pace, power, and experience, albeit against some fairly mediocre opposition.
The 20-point win over France now looks a better effort given France's beating of England, and the 23-point margin over Argentina was actually a solid performance - the All Black did score 33 points against an Argentine side that only conceded 40 point in total in their 4 group games.
New Zealand Team and Tactics
The All Blacks have put this year's Tri Nations loss to Australia behind them and the New Zealanders are not stupid enough to read anything much into Australia's loss to Ireland in the RWC pool stage.
IN stark comparison to the Australian yabba - the All Blacks have shown this Wallabies side the respect they deserve - as previous winners Australia are a major threat to New Zealand making the final of RWC 2011.
The All Blacks have Richie McCaw back as captain and in combination with Fullback Israel Dagg and wing Richard Kahui, the All Blacks to my mind are undoubtedly the better team throufght the matchups.
Starting New Zealand Rugby Team Lineup:
1 Tony Woodcock, 2 Keven Mealamu, 3 Owen Franks, 4 Sam Whitelock, 5 Brad Thorn, 6 Jerome Kaino, 7 Richie McCaw, 8 Kieran Read, 9 Piri Weepu, 10 Aaron Cruden, 11 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 13 Conrad Smith, 14 Cory Jane, 15 Israel Dagg
Reserves:
16 Andrew Hore, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Sonny Bill Williams
Key Team Issues:
'McCaw's foot is fine'...but is it? Kahui's hamstring may flare up again. Aaron Cruden at first five-eighth replaces Colin Slade (who replaced Dan Carter) - so at least the ABs will have a back-up kicker and hopefully Cruden will live up to expectations.
Other Variables
Referee: Craig Joubert (RSA)
The Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
The Weather:Showers. Northerly winds. 14 degrees at kickoff.
The Verdict
Forget the media hype about the Eden Park hoo-doo, the ground is irrelevant, so is the "pressure" that the Aussies talk about as THAT force that has driven the All Blacks to win 93% of home internationals - including 12 in a row against Australia.
So playing with home advantage is the key to this match in my mind with the All Blacks winning 56 of their last 60 home rugby tests over the last 10 years AT ANY VENUE in New Zealand.
Undoubtedly these are two very good sides on offer - as evidenced by the #1 and #2 world rankings. The All Blacks will play to their strengths - passing attacking rugby - while the Wallabies will play defensive counter-attacking rugby. It's just the way of things.
I'm expecting a lowish scoring game (for Southern Hemisphere sides anyway) - only 2 or 3 tries in total and no runaway scorelines - but in the end we should see a victory to the New Zealand team.
The Pick :
Australia 16-23 New Zealand
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
With the handicap line well set (see below) I will just take the straight win option - NEW ZEALAND TO WIN
HANDICAP BETTING TIP :
A quick check of the handicaps on offer show that the bookmakers agree on making New Zealand a solid favourite with a +6.5 to +7.5 point handicap.That's just a point here or there from my score - so there is no handicap play offered.
