Novak Djokovic vs Lucas Pouille | 2019-01-25 | Tennis | Betting Pick by FirstDown

Tennis

2019-01-25 - Novak Djokovic vs Lucas Pouille

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Novak Djokovic v Lucas Pouille
Tennis: Australian Open Semi Final
Friday 25th January 2018 - Scheduled 7pm
British Time: 8am

Preview

The first reaction to seeing this spread was one of disappointment for me as I was hoping Lucas Pouille may be rated a touch higher than he is. It was a number I was still willing to back Novak Djokovic at, but I would have loved to have seen the same kind of overreaction to a tournament that Stefanos Tsitsipas got in his Semi Final against Rafael Nadal when he was in receipt of one less game on the handicap.

Never mind, we have to focus on what we have and I still think Lucas Pouille is going to have to play much higher than what he usually has produced if he is going to beat Novak Djokovic.

The Frenchman has been receiving plenty of praise for his support of Coach Amelie Mauresmo who has joined his team recently, but that doesn't count for a lot when going to the court. Some will suggest her impact has seen Pouille breakthrough at Grand Slam level, but he is a two time Quarter Finalist in the majors and I think the draw has been a good one for him.

Take nothing away from Pouille as he has beaten Borna Coric and Milos Raonic as the underdog and played very well in both matches. However this is another step up in terms of quality of opponent and Pouille has to show he can produce his best tennis against a top 5 Ranked opponent which has not been the case in his career so far.

Pouille is 1-5 in those matches on the hard courts and he has seen his serve attacked more than he is used to with only 70% holds in those matches. The return game has always needed work and the numbers are dented significantly in those matches too and I do wonder if the belief is there for a match like this one.

Winning matches adds to the confidence, but Novak Djokovic is a player who should be fresh having beaten Kei Nishikori in the Quarter Final after playing less than two sets. The World Number 1 is serving wonderfully at this tournament and even concerns about his back may have passed with the extra time to recover for this Semi Final, while the return is right up there with Rafael Nadal's and should put Pouille under intense pressure.

There is plenty of talent being brought to the court by Pouille, but he has struggled when facing Andy Murray and I do think Novak Djokovic is an upgrade on that type of player. Novak Djokovic should be able to force Pouille into some longer rallies and I do think he is going to return the serve better than anyone the Frenchman has faced in this tournament which should put his overall game under pressure.

It is a big number being asked of Novak Djokovic when you think of the serving numbers Pouille has produced, but the World Number 1 is winning 45% of return points through the tournament. He has broken in 43% of return games and even accounting for the slightly skewed nature of that by the Nishikori win, I do think Djokovic will challenge Pouille's tournament numbers considerably.

Those service numbers are some way higher than what he managed on the hard courts in 2017 and 2018 and I do think they will head back to a more consistent level over the course of the season. The Rod Laver Arena is a court Novak Djokovic has loved to play on and I think he will wear down Lucas Pouille in this one and begin to pull away once the first set and a half are in the books.

Prediction

Make no mistake this is a very big number for the World Number 1 to cover. However it is going to need a special serving day from Lucas Pouille to get within it in my opinion and I think Novak Djokovic can lay the games in this Semi Final.