Tennis
2021-09-08 - Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Quarter Final
Wednesday 8th September 2021 - Scheduled 9pm
(2am British Time)
Preview
The Wimbledon Final was played a little under two months ago and we are going to see a repeat of that when Novak Djokovic takes on Matteo Berrettini in the US Open Quarter Final. This will be the third Grand Slam in a row that these two top 10 Ranked players will be meeting one another and I think that says a lot about the consistency that both have been playing with throughout this calendar year.
No one will be surprised to read that about Novak Djokovic who is now three wins away from completing the calendar Grand Slam and perhaps cementing his place as the best tennis player of all time. The World Number 1 looks like he is going to be the favourite to win any tournament he enters, but some of the young guns on the Tour will be looking to make a statement through the remainder of this tournament.
Novak Djokovic has played well in New York City, but he has dropped a set in three of the four matches he has played and needed to rally from a really poor start when overcoming young American Jenson Brooksby in the Fourth Round. To be fair to Novak Djokovic, he was a comfortable winner by the end after dropping the first set 6-1, and the level he is producing is going to mean someone has to find an exceptional performance to prevent him winning this Grand Slam title.
A player like Matteo Berrettini is capable, but the Italian has struggled to stay with Novak Djokovic in all three previous matches. His consistency on the Tour has to be highly respected and Matteo Berrettini fully deserves his spot in the top 10 of the World Rankings, but he is just 1-5 in his matches against top 10 Ranked opponents this season and that is the next step he will be looking to take in his development as a player.
There is plenty of foundation to build upon though and the big server will feel that gives him a chance in any match he plays. However, Matteo Berrettini has only broken in 8% of return games played against top 10 Ranked opponents in 2021 and he wins less than 30% of return points played which makes it very difficult to beat those players.
In the three matches played against Novak Djokovic since November 2020, Matteo Berrettini has barely scraped over the 6% mark when it comes to breaks of serve and that is simply not going to cut it for him. The serve has been one that Novak Djokovic has broken down too and I think it would be a big upset for the top Seed to be beaten here despite the Ranking that his opponent holds.
With that in mind I am not surprised that the layers are asking Novak Djokovic to cover a big spread against Matteo Berrettini and it is a mark he is capable of overcoming. However, I do think Matteo Berrettini has been serving well enough to cause some problems for Novak Djokovic and it has to be noted that he has taken a set off of him at both the French Open and Wimbledon, even though he has largely been outplayed in both of those matches.
That may be the value in this Quarter Final as Novak Djokovic has dropped a set in three matches already in the tournament, but it shouldn't need more than four sets for the World Number 1 to move into another Slam Semi Final.
Prediction
Back the World Number one to go through, but perhaps in four sets.
The Pick :
Novak Djokovic 3-1 Matteo Berrettini
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Novak Djokovic to Win 3-1 at 3.60 with BetFred
