Tennis
2026-02-01 - Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : Australian Open Semi Final
Sunday 1st February 2025 - Scheduled 7:30pm
8:30am (British Time)
Preview
Depending on your personal belief system, you may describe events on Friday as being 'destiny', 'fate' or perhaps even think some sort of 'divine intervention'.
That is certainly the case for the second Semi Final which was won by Novak Djokovic and the desire to win a twenty-fifth Grand Slam title is now just one match away.
It has been a miraculous few days for the 38 year old and that cannot be denied, no matter what else you believe.
A walkover in the Fourth Round is not so unique- in a long Grand Slam tournament, things like that happen, but the last couple of matches have been very unique.
Trailing 2-0 in the Quarter Final, Novak Djokovic admitted that his time in Melbourne looked to be coming to an end for another year.
Instead, Djokovic was given a reprieve as his fortune was Lorenzo Musetti's misfortune with an injury forcing the Italian to withdraw early in the third set when looking more than on course to beat the ten time Australian Open Champion.
Novak Djokovic admitted the better player had lost on the day, and there may be a similar feeling after he somehow managed to rally and beat the World Number 2 in a five set epic on Friday. The numbers back up that this may have been the most unexpected Semi Final win in a Grand Slam event going back to 1991 when some of the leading number-crunchers have been keeping vigorous records.
The former World Number 1 had 8 Break Points compared with the 18 that Jannik Sinner created, but Djokovic won the majority of the biggest points and recovered from 15/40 positions twice and 0/40 in the final set. He took his one and only Break Point created and the legendary Serb won a match in which his opponent won 12 more points over the course of the epic last four contest.
Suffice to say it is very difficult to overcome those kinds of numbers over and over again, while Novak Djokovic just spent over four hours on the court at 38 years old. Recovery is going to be the big challenge, but it certainly helps that his opponent in this Final has just played the longest Semi Final in Australian Open history.
Carlos Alcaraz is looking to become the youngest player to complete the career Grand Slam, but he had to dig seriously deep to beat Alexander Zverev having cramped up towards the end of the third set. At that stage the World Number 1 looked to be cruising through, but the body began to let him down and that allowed Alexander Zverev to win the next two sets in Tie-Breakers and then take a break lead in the decider.
All credit has to be given to the Spaniard for turning that set around and fighting his way through to the Final, although he has since indicated that he was not receiving a Medical Time Out for cramping issues, but because he felt something else in his muscle. That MTO infuriated Alexander Zverev, because you are not allowed to have a trainer come and work on cramps unless between changeovers and even then it can only be used three times.
Ultimately Zverev has tried to move past any controversy and it is Carlos Alcaraz who will be playing in the Australian Open Final for the first time.
Like his older opponent, Carlos Alcaraz will have to show tremendous recovery after spending almost five and a half hours on the court on Friday. Credit has to be given to the top Seed for the way he managed his serve in that win over Alexander Zverev and it is going to need to be a key shot for him to earn the victory over Novak Djokovic.
Carlos Alcaraz is plenty experienced, even at this young age, but this is easily his best run at the Australian Open and that means he is breaking new ground.
Of course that is far from the case for Novak Djokovic who has won this title ten times in his career and he has NEVER been beaten in the Australian Open Final. This has to give the Serb so much confidence, while he will note that he upset Carlos Alcaraz on this court twelve months ago in a four set win.
Prior to the US Open Semi Final in September, Novak Djokovic had not been beaten on a hard court by Carlos Alcaraz and that is another factor that has to give the veteran belief that this is his moment to win a twenty-fifth Grand Slam title and move clear of all.
The four hard court matches played between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have narrowly favoured the latter, but the win in New York City has to give the Spaniard so much confidence.
He only faced a single Break Point that day and Alcaraz had his chances in the Quarter Final defeat to Novak Djokovic twelve months ago.
Carlos Alcaraz will believe that his serve has improved markedly since that loss to Novak Djokovic in Melbourne when he was only winning 58% of points played behind the serve. That number improved to 70% in New York City and the returning numbers were similar in both matches, which suggests Carlos Alcaraz deserves the edge that has been given to him.
Over the last twelve months, Carlos Alcaraz has been the superior hard court player, while he has definitely been the more impressive within this tournament.
Novak Djokovic has shown he can play clutch tennis at the biggest moments, while the aggressive style surprised Jannik Sinner and may also give Alcaraz something to think about.
Factoring in the ability to recover from epic five setters on Friday is much more difficult- you would think Carlos Alcaraz being younger and playing earlier on the day will give him the edge, but dismissing the motivation that is fuelling Novak Djokovic and having that see him leave everything on the court would be dangerous.
The hard court performances against Carlos Alcaraz and the confidence of playing in these conditions and on this court makes Novak Djokovic a threat too.
Perhaps he is playing with some destiny and that Sunday is all about Novak Djokovic moving past Margaret Court's twenty-four Grand Slams just across from a tennis court names after the Australian.
Winning the title and leaving the sport would just be a fitting end to what has been a wonderful career, but the numbers suggest Carlos Alcaraz will have a little too much for Novak Djokovic. His variety is going to be important, as it was in the US Open Semi Final win, and a cold heart can only pick the World Number 1 to complete his career Grand Slam by breaking the heart of one of the absolute greatest to ever pick up a racquet.
It would really not offend if this Pick is wrong and Novak Djokovic can turn back the clock one more time, but he is going to have to come through some really sticky moments again and this time he may just come up short.
That win in New York City should make Carlos Alcaraz know what he needs to do in this Australian Open Final and he may just have too much over three or four sets.
Prediction
No one wants to lose money or be wrong about the way a sporting event is going to go when writing out a preview and a recommendation.
However, if Novak Djokovic upsets the odds and wins a twenty-fifth Grand Slam Title, it will be a moment to celebrate watching greatness.
The heart would love to see that happen, but the ten time former Australian Open Champion has ridden his luck in the last couple of Rounds and will need some more 'miracles' to beat Carlos Alcaraz if the numbers are similar to the levels produced by the two players in the tournament.
Conditioning is going to be a factor, but assuming Carlos Alcaraz was 'only' having cramping issues on Friday should mean the Spaniard can use his serve and variety to get the better of the legend standing across the net.
The Pick :
Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 Novak Djokovic
